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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2022–Mar 24th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Continually evaluate snowpack conditions as you change aspect and elevation through the day. A brief cooling trend will help reduce avalanche danger, but there are still human triggerable avalanche problems out there.

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Around 5 mm of rain expected (5 cm of snow above the freezing line). Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop winds. Freezing level falling to around 1500 m, but it will likely be around 2000 m when the bulk of the snow/rain falls.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. No new precipitation expected. Light west ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1900 m.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. No new precipitation expected. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 750 m overnight, rising to 2000 m through the day.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. No new precipitation expected. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 2200 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Over the past three days, a few natural cornice failures (size 1-2) have been observed, with some initiating slab avalanches on the slope below. 

Small wet loose avalanches continue to occur on south-facing aspects from solar radiation and daytime warming (up to size 1.5).

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of recent snowfall overlies 20 to 40 cm of heavy powder at upper elevations. Warm temperatures have left moist and crusty surfaces below 2000 m on all aspects and into the alpine on south-facing aspects. The upper snowpack contains several crust layers, and the snow is well bonded to these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Start on smaller terrain features and gather information before committing to bigger terrain.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Minimize your exposure time below cornices.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.