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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2015–Mar 11th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

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Shallow storm slabs are possible near and above treeline Wednesday especially on lee easterly aspects. 

Detailed Forecast

A frontal system should bring light rain and snow to the east slopes Tuesday night and Wednesday. New snow above 5500-6500 ft may form shallow storm slabs near and above treeline, especially on lee easterly aspects, but new slabs should be shallow enough to keep the avalanche danger low. The snowpack should be well drained and setup to handle rain at lower elevations.

Due to the low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation. Many areas below treeline do not have enough snow (new or existing) to pose an avalanche hazard.

Snowpack Discussion

The last snowfall occurred near the end of February; the central and southeast Cascades received the most snow with 7 inches at Mission Ridge, and generally 2 or 3 inches fell around the northeast Cascades. This was followed by locally strong north to northeast winds that built shallow wind slab on a variety of aspects. Sunny and gradually warmer weather has been seen the first third of March helping to stabilize local wind slab from the end of February and further consolidate the snowpack.

The North Cascade Heli and Mountain Guides in the Washington Pass area over the weekend reported some cool snow on north to east slopes with numerous snowpack tests giving no results. Many slopes above treeline were quite wind and sun-affected, producing variable skiing conditions but no stability concerns. On a positive note, the snow study plot on a north aspect at 6600 ft above Varden Creek measured a snow depth of nearly two and a half meters! Avalanche professionals in the Washington area on Tuesday re-affirmed the overall low avalanche danger. 

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.