A storm is forecast to cross the region over the next 48hrs. Up to 70cm of snow may fall with strong SW winds. This will likely be the first avalanche cycle of the season.
Confidence
Fair - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday
Weather Forecast
A significant storm is approaching at this time. Total snowfall over the next three days may be between 60-80cm with strong SW winds. As usual, its just a forecast so we will have to wait till tomorrow and see how much new snow we get! For now, Friday is calling for 20cm throughout the day and then the main pulse of the storm is expected on Friday evening and Saturday day.
Avalanche Summary
No new natural activity was observed on Thursday.
Snowpack Summary
Still not a whole pile of snow out there. On average 50-70cm of snow can be found at treeline. In Alpine areas strong winds on Thursday transported available snow onto lee aspects creating pockets of wind slabs. Stiff windslabs should be expected in gullied terrain and along ridgelines. Any avalanche that does occur is likely to involve the entire winters snowpack right now so keep the idea of a "rough" ride in your head. Its still early season out there.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.