Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

The arctic ridge of high pressure dominates conditions for the forecast period. Clear and dry conditions are expected for the next three days with a bit of a warming trend. No precipitation in the forecast for the next few days.Tuesday night: Clear, Freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds light variableWednesday: Sunny, freezing level around 1000m, possibility of an alpine temperature inversion, ridge top winds light-variable.Thursday: Sunny with cloudy periods, freezing level around 1200m, ridge top winds, light to 25Km/h.Friday:  Sunny, freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds from the North at 15 Km/h

We have been receiving less reports of natural activity in the last couple days but the natural avalanches that are occurring have been increasing in size. One operator has reported evidence of a recent avalanche cycle in steep terrain with avalanches up to size 2.5.Cornice failures are a very real concern, and solar warming on steep S. aspects may trigger avalanches that might "step down" to weak mid -pack and basal layers possibly triggering a very large slide.Conditions are ideal for human triggering right now and we have received numerous reports of skier triggered avalanches in the last few days, many of which have released quite deep in the snowpack. Several of these avalanches were remotely triggered.

A cohesive slab with an average thickness of 1metre sits on a nasty persistent weak layer (surface hoar/facet/crust combo) that was formed during the preceding month of cold, dry weather. This weak layer is widespread at all elevations and aspects, and is creating problems even in previously skied terrain. Large settlements and whumpfs have been reported at all elevations. We have received numerous reports of remotely-triggered avalanches from as far as 500m away which indicates the possibility of large propagation within the weak layer. Touchy conditions are expected to remain in place longer than we're normally accustomed to. Recent strong winds out of the SW through NW have created wind slabs on lee features in wind exposed areas at treeline and above. In many wind loaded areas, a slab of up to 2 m thickness overlie the persistent weak layer creating conditions for very large avalanches.Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.