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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 21st, 2015–Nov 22nd, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Excellent skiing and supportive touring in sheltered areas. Early season hazards are cleverly hidden under all the snow. Ski and ride cautiously.

Weather Forecast

Expect seasonal temperatures next few days with a slight daytime warming trend continuing Sunday. Consistent moderate westerly winds continue through Sunday making it unpleasant to tour in the open. Monday afternoon forecast still calling for 10-15 cm of storm snow. Be observant of the impacts of previous wind and the resulting stiffening slab.

Snowpack Summary

Field observations in the Parkers area found snow depths vary between 10 to 140 cm. Extensive wind effect at TL and above giving supportive touring but limited ski quality out in the open. Where significant loading has occurred the snow remains stubborn and does not want to propagate. This was the case on a heavily cross-loaded open west aspect.

Avalanche Summary

One possible unobserved skier remote, sz 1.5 seen today on a regular performing slope in the Hilda-Destiny ridge area. A BTL steep rock slab feature in a cross-loaded gully. Forecasters are treating it as a anomalous event as no further evidence in the surrounding area supports that snowpack character but, still a high consequence event.

Confidence

Due to the quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.