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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2014–Jan 16th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Jasper.

Highway 93N will be closed for avalanche control from Saskatchewan River Crossing to Poboktan Creek for Thursday Jan. 16th from 6am to 4pm. No climbing or skiing is permitted within the closure area.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures forecasted to reach above seasonal expectations by midday Thursday. The high pressure and periodic glorious sunshine is forecasted to remain into the weekend and through next week.

Snowpack Summary

Warmer temperatures at TL and below are promoting settlement in the snowpack. Recent new snow has been redistributed by strong SW winds creating wind slab in open areas at all elevations.  This sits over a supportive mid-pack at higher elevations. There is a weaker overall snowpack BLT and at all elevations this is on top of weak basal facets.

Avalanche Summary

Natural cycle continues in the forecast area with numerous slab avalanches reported today on all aspects in the elevation range of 1900 to 2600m. Of particular note is a size 3 on Kitchener Shoulder, SE aspect at 2400ms running to ground.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.