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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 18th, 2015–Dec 19th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Take a progressively incremental  approach to committing terrain features in this time of  low avalanche danger and be prepared to scale back if signs indicating more dangerous conditions.

Weather Forecast

The winds are forecast to increase to strong from the SW. The overnight temps at alpine elevations will be around -10 with daytime highs of -5. Up to 10cm of new snow may fall over the weekend at higher elevations but no significant storms are forecast. Increased winds will build soft slabs in the alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow in past 12 hr . Above 2000m the meter deep snowpack  is very supportive .  A weak surface hoar layer, buried on Dec 3rd, lurks below 45-60cm of snow. This layer is of concern at and below treeline on northerly facing slopes. In the Alpine thin wind slabs can be found above 2,800m. Below 1,700m the snowpack is weak and shallow.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity observed and reported

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.