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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2015–Jan 30th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

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A low danger is expected on Thursday. Watch for terrain hazards due to the low snowpack.

Detailed Forecast

An upper ridge will be over the Northwest on Friday. This will cause light winds, sunny weather and mild temperatures. Cooler east winds should be seen in the lower Cascade passes. Low clouds are likely in valleys east of the crest with some fog reaching Snoqualmie during the morning hours.

This weather will cause little change in overall stable snow conditions and a low avalanche danger.

The limited avalanche problem to watch for should be loose wet avalanches. Watch for wet snow deeper than a few inches or natural avalanches on steep solar slopes. But the likelihood and size will be listed as unlikely and small respectively.

Due to the low snowpack at lower elevations watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

Snowpack Discussion

Last weekend a warm front caused high snow levels and rain. Most NWAC sites west of the crest had about 1-3 inches of rain. This caused loose wet avalanches, some possible wet slab avalanches and consolidation. West of the crest a lot of water was seen in and draining from the snow pack.

Mainly mild or sunny weather has been seen so far this week.

NWAC forecaster Dennis D'Amico found previous loose wet avalanches on Monday on this SE aspect at about 6500 feet in the Paradise Glacier Valley, possibly triggered by small cornice drops during the weekend rain event. Here are a couple of his photos.

The snowpack west of the crest should mainly consist of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.