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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 22nd, 2019–Nov 23rd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Considerable alpine danger is based on storm snow totaling 20+ cm by Saturday afternoon which is expected to do two things:

1. Create a touchy storm slab problem.

2. Potentially wake up the persistent slab problem. 

Prepare for rapidly changing conditions and increasing hazard. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainties in both the snowpack structure and the weather forecast limit our confidence.

Weather Forecast

It’s late November and this weather pattern looks to bring winter to our doorsteps this weekend. The region should get a nice re-fresh from the system.

FRIDAY NIGHT: 5 to 20 cm of snow possible with greater accumulations in the north of the region, freezing level holding around 1400 m, strong southwest wind.

SATURDAY: Storm day, visibility is likely to be poor, freezing level around 1500 m, strong west/southwest wind, 5 to 20 cm of snow possible, with another 10 to 20 cm possible Saturday night.

SUNDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1300 m, moderate west wind, 5 to 20 cm of snow possible.

MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level near valley bottom, light northwest breeze, no significant snowfall expected.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported. A natural avalanche cycle is possible late Saturday as storm snow begins to stack up on a weak and variable snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Winter is slowly descending to the valleys with about 90 to 120 cm of snow present around 2000 m.

There are likely a variety of crusts in our young snowpack, but a problematic rain crust down about 50 cm is beginning to stand out. This "October Crust" is showing sudden & repeatable results when subjected to snowpack tests. Avalanches failing on this interface have the potential to be large and could easily suprise users who are getting out onto snow for the first time this season. There's a great summary of conditions at Allan Creek here.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.