Avalanche forecast

Waterton Lakes

Dec 27 – 30, 2015Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 11 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Mid winter conditions make for great skiing in many locations, but also makes for an increasingly complex snowpack. Evaluate the conditions carefully before committing to big terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Watch for new wind slab development with ongoing Moderate to Strong Westerly winds.  Fresh windslabs may become buried with light snowfall later in the forecast period.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–3
    A large natural slab avalanche was observed last wednesday, this may have released at a buried crust from early December. For now, it is unclear if this will remain an isolated event, or if this layer is becoming more sensitive to loads.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Wind effect will make this problem less widespread, however sluffing will remain a concern in steep sheltered terrain

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will remain over the area until Sunday evening, a gradual rise in temperatures will be accompanied by moderate - strong Westerly winds. On Monday this ridge breaks down and a SW flow brings snow, with accumulations of up to 5cm. Tuesday the flow switches to NE, temperatures drop, and we may see a further 5cm of snow.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 55cm of low density snow has fallen since Dec 20 and is now being redistributed into wind slabs by gusty Moderate W winds. This overlies variable layers of old windslab with the Dec 9th crust below(down 50-90cm), which remains a concern as a potential weak interface, especially with cold temps promoting facetting of the snow above and below.

Avalanche Summary

Several size 1 loose snow avalanches were observed yesterday, likely triggered by the snowfall on Christmas eve.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Regions covered