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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2014–Mar 23rd, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Enjoy the good skiing but take the time to carefully evaluate the new storm slabs as you enter new terrain. The snowpack changes rapidly with subtle changes in aspect and elevation.

Weather Forecast

After dropping  about 15-20 cm the pacific air will be pushed out of the Park by arctic air Friday with temperatures dropping to  near -20. This high pressure system will dominate Saturday. Pacific air will challenge the arctic air reaching the divide on Sunday which may result in limited snowfall. Expect variable wind direction and speed.

Snowpack Summary

10 cm new snow in the past 24 hrs. The 0314 interface is down 25 to 40 cm and is a crust below 1900m. The 0318 suncrust is 20 cm deep on solar aspects. Storm slabs have formed over these interfaces with mild temperatures and strong West winds. The 0310 rain crust is down 70 cm at Treeline and can be found as high as 2300m.

Avalanche Summary

Loose moist activity has diminished with dropping temperatures however loose dry activity can still be expected out of very steep terrain. Skiers at treeline elevations experienced cracking and small slabs failing in wind effected areas: a sign that storm slabs will be active to skier triggering in steep or unsupported terrain.

Confidence

Wind speed and direction is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.