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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2016–Mar 18th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Great turns to be had, but don't be lured into aggressive terrain too soon. Also, bear in mind that forecaster confidence is lower late in the week, as weather may be different than current forecasts indicate.

Weather Forecast

A high developing over BC will push the current unsettled airmass right out of town, but spins us a light upslope flow on Thursday- expect continued cold temperatures and light snowfall (2-6cm daily). Expect -5 to -10 temperatures at treeline. Moderate W winds ease, before a brief period of moderate NE winds early Thursday - soon becoming light.

Snowpack Summary

50cm of snow fell over the past week. Accompanying SW winds have created dense Storm Slabs 30-60cm deep on lee slopes. Easy-Moderate shears exist down 20cm on a mid-storm layer. The slab appears to be bonding well to the underlying crust in many areas, but this should be investigated carefully. Below, weak buried crusts exist in isolated locations.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, a few storm slabs were observed in steep, lee terrain below 2200m. These varied from small (Size 1), to large (Size 2). On Tuesday, a large (Size 2.5 ) storm slab was observed to have occurred in a steep and unsupported alpine slope below cornices, in the Forum Lake area.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.