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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 11th, 2018–Apr 12th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

Reactive storm slabs and loose dry avalanches exist in the alpine and the treeline. Loose wet avalanche activity expected at lower elevations. Another blast of winter will arrive on Friday.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Weather models are showing the possibility of accumulated precipitation amounts up to 40 mm by Wednesday night. Come Friday a (light) atmospheric river reaches the region bringing freezing levels near 1600 m and upwards to 50 mm. Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods. No significant precipitation. Ridgetop winds moderate from the southwest and freezing levels 1000 m. Friday: Stormy. Light precipitation in the am and increasing throughout the day with 40 -50 mm by the evening and another 40 mm overnight. Ridgetop winds strong from the South and freezing levels rising to 1600 m. Saturday: Stormy. Mix of rain and snow elevation dependent. Ridgetop winds strong from the South and freezing levels 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

We have received very little information on avalanche activity for this region. From the little we have heard, there were no new avalanches to report from Wednesday. Forecast heavy precipitation should mean that the likelihood of triggering avalanches is on the rise.We would very much appreciate it if you spend a moment to submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here, even if it is just a photo. Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Rain is now falling as snow at upper elevations building reactive storm slabs which sit over a predominant thick crust. It is difficult to predict where and when rain will switch to snow, but expect the transition to happen and by Wednesday and most precipitation will fall as snow above 1300 m.At below treeline elevations, a spring snowpack exists. Rain has saturated and weakened the upper snowpack. Forecast rain will continue this trend.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.