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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 25th, 2018–Nov 26th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

A warm and wet system is moving across the province. Snowfall and rising temperatures will test the strength of buried layers within the snowpack. In areas with higher than forecasted snowfall, avalanche hazard may be higher than forecasted.

Confidence

Low - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / Precipitation: up to 5cm / Light south-southwest ridge windMONDAY: Flurries / Accumulation: 5-15 cm / Alpine temperature: Low -4C / Moderate south ridge wind / Freezing level 1400mTUESDAY: Periods of snow / Accumulation: 10-25 cm / Alpine temperature: High 0C / Moderate south-southwest ridge wind / Freezing level 1700mWEDNESDAY: Cloudy with flurries / Accumulation: up to 10 cm / Alpine temperature: High -3C / Light to moderate south-southwest ridge wind / Freezing level 1400m

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a large human triggered avalanche was reported on Meadow Mountain. The size 3 avalanche occurred on a steep, north aspect in the alpine and failed to ground, likely on a crust buried in October. Find the MIN report here.Earlier in the month, a natural avalanche cycle took place over the late October crust/facet combination. Be aware of the continued possibility for smaller avalanches to 'step down' or even initiate at this deeper layer. It exists primarily in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of recent snow covers two surface hoar layers (weak feathery snow), down about 30 and 60 cm respectively. Near the ground, faceted/sugary snow on a crust supports the snowpack. The total snowpack depth varies from 110-160 cm in the alpine, with snowpack depth decreasing quickly with decreasing elevation.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.