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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 9th, 2018–Apr 10th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Expect changing weather on Tuesday: warm air that will cool over the day, intense rain switching to snow, strong winds, and afternoon sun breaks. Warming will weaken the snow and new snow will form fresh slabs. Be cautious with these rapid changes.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Morning precipitation with afternoon clearing, accumulation 20 to 30 mm rain switching to snow at higher elevations mid-morning, strong to extreme southwest winds, treeline temperature 4 C, freezing level 2600 m dropping to 1200 m over the day.WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 30 cm, moderate to strong south winds, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level 1200 m.THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, light west winds, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 1100 m.

Avalanche Summary

We have received very little information on avalanche activity for this region.  From the little we have heard, it was generally easy to initiate large wet loose avalanche in steep terrain below treeline on the weekend but this activity decreased into Monday.  Forecasted high freezing levels and rain should mean that the likelihood of triggering avalanches is on the rise.We would very much appreciate it if you spend a moment to submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here, even if it is just a photo. Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Warm air temperatures are moistening the weekend’s 40 to 100 cm of storm snow at treeline and alpine elevations, which sits above a thick crust.  Tuesday’s precipitation will continue to moisten the snow where it falls as rain and build new slabs where it falls as snow.  It is difficult to predict where and when rain will switch to snow, but expect the transition to happen midday on Tuesday, after which point most precipitation will fall as snow in the region above 1000 m.At below treeline elevations, a spring snowpack exists. Rain on the weekend saturated and weakened the upper snowpack.  Forecasted rain will continue this trend.  The mid and lower snowpack are strong.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.