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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 18th, 2018–Dec 19th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

It is starting to sound like a broken record, but the storms keep coming. Wednesday will be brief period where you may be able to have a look around, but the next round of snow and wind will start up on Thursday, prompting the danger to increase.

Confidence

High - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Flurries, accumulation 5-10cm. Alpine temperature -5. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1200m. WEDNESDAY: Scattered flurries, accumulation 5 cm. Alpine temperature -4. Light west wind. Freezing level 1300m. THURSDAY: Snow, accumulation 25-35cm. Alpine temperature -1. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1500 m. FRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Alpine temperature -8. Light west wind.  Freezing level at the valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports indicate numerous explosives controlled storm slab avalanches size1.5-2 at tree line and in the alpine on Monday. A few of these have have been suspected to be running on a layer of facets buried up to metre deep.

Snowpack Summary

Over 2 m of snow has accumulated over the past 10 days. We are in the midst of another series of storms impacting the region, which will bring another round of snow and strong to extreme southerly winds.A weak layer of facets and surface hoar lies below all the recent storm snow. Initially, avalanches were reported to be running on this layer. However, recent avalanche activity is running in the storm snow above this layer. Still, the presence of this layer shouldn't be completely discarded, since it could potentially increase expected avalanche size with a large trigger like a cornice collapse.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.