Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You can trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche on faceted weak layers that are 2 to 5 feet down in the snowpack.  The most likely place you'll find this strong over weak poor snowpack structure is on northerly and east aspects. Although the likelihood of triggering one of these large avalanches is decreasing as we push further away from the last loading event, the consequences remain incredibly high if you do.  Steer clear of slopes over 35 degrees on northerly and east aspects, avoiding likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops.   Warm temperatures and our intense sun this time of year will bring the threat of small wet loose avalanches in steep terrain.  Rollerballs and pinwheels are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet and it's time to head to a shadier aspect. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Warm temperatures and our high sun angle will bring the threat of small wet loose snow avalanches in steep terrain.  These avalanches should be small and confined to the 3 to 4 inches of snow that fell on  Wednesday running on a crust that formed during warm temperatures early in the week.  These types of avalanches can entrain enough snow to knock you off your feet or push you into a terrain trap. Rollerballs and pinwheels are indications that the snow surface is becoming moist and wet and consider heading to a shadier aspect.  

    Small loose snow avalanche from yesterday on an east aspect.  These avalanches will be small most likely running on a crust below the  3 to 4 inches of snow 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Faceted weak layers from Jan/Feb dry spell are capped by 2 to 5-foot dense slabs from snow we received at the beginning of March.  As we push further away from the last significant loading event, it's becoming more stubborn to trigger an avalanche but not impossible.  Although there's a "lower" likelihood of triggering a slide the consequences are still high as last week's very large natural avalanches showed us.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab, near rock outcroppings where you're more likely to impact these deeper weak layers. Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may or may not be present.  It also may not be the first or second person on the slope to trigger an avalanche, but may just take finding that right "sweet spot" to release an avalanche.   

    Faceted weak layers are deeply buried beneath dense slabs from the end of Feb/early March storms.  

Avalanche Discussion

It'll be a beautiful spring day with temperatures climbing into the 30s and 40's under sunny skies and light winds.  Winds look to pick up on Sunday ahead of our next storm system that arrives later Sunday evening through Monday. There is still low confidence in the track of this closed low with the GFS bringing the low further north across I - 40 than the ECMWF and NAM which have it tracking along the southern NM border.  

The persistent slab problem continues to linger with the bulls-eye being on northerly and east aspects.  Although natural avalanche activity has subsided in the last week, and as we push further away from the last significant loading event, it's becoming more difficult to trigger an avalanche, the consequences are incredibly high you do.  The very large natural avalanche on the backside of Kachina Peak last Saturday show's what an avalanche might look like if you were to trigger one.  This persistent slab problem is similar to what other areas in Utah and CO are dealing with. On March 17th a snowboarder was caught, buried and killed in an avalanche on a NW slope above treeline southeast of Trout Lake near the town of Ophir close to Telluride. The snowboarder was buried about 2 meters deep and unfortunately did not survive.  Our condolences go out to the family and everyone that was involved in the accident.  You can read the preliminary report here.

These January/February facet layers are buried beneath an obvious dust layer in the snowpack from the 2/22 wind event, so if you're going to dig a pit to assess a slope you'll have to dig down beneath that. These weak layers have been showing signs of healing and strengthening and stability tests are producing hard results.  In many pits, I'm finding these layers 110 to 150cm down from the surface and it will most likely take finding the sweet spot where the overlying slab is thinner and you're more likely to impact these layers.  With the potential of a significant storm on Monday, we may see these layers become more reactive before hopefully putting them to bed for the rest of the season. In Santa Fe, an observation found this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak in an overall shallower snowpack (110cm on NW aspect below treeline) where depth hoar lingers on the ground and is capped by denser slabs   

In recent travels, variable conditions existed prior to this last little storm across elevations and aspects, with crusts forming on the surface on solar aspects from warm temperatures and our intense sun this time of year.  Not a problem currently but I am observing near-surface facets forming around these crusts that could become our next problematic layer once we introduce a cohesive slab above it.  Northerly aspects still have cold dry snow and are where you'll find the best skiing and riding conditions.  At upper elevations, you may find pockets of wind drifted snow from Thursdays 3 to 4 inches and moderate to strong winds.  With NE/E winds expect to find these shallow slabs on the south and west aspects, but with this not being our usual loading pattern, you may find shallow wind slabs in atypical places today.  Watch for obvious wind drifted pillows and overall stiffening of the surface. Avoid steep slopes where you find 6 or more inches of wind drifted snow.  Shooting cracks on the surface are indications you've found a shallow wind slab.  

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