Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Tuesday should be yet another day of very mild temperatures. The lack of freeze is cause for heightened awareness at upper elevations because the snowpack has become largely unsupportable. Wet avalanches associated with this spring shed cycle may occur, so steer clear of potential runout zones beneath large terrain features and cornices. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    It's been several days and nights of mild weather, and the snowpack is melting. Wet loose avalanches are the main concern, although in reality there's a smattering of wet snow-related avalanche problems. Avalanches could be larger in alpine terrain near the crest. Look for recent activity such as fan shaped wet loose avalanches, cornice falls, wet slabs, and glide cracks.

    Check to see if the snow entrains when it slides downhill. Consider avoiding steep areas with increased consequences such as terrain above cliffs, gullies, or complex terrain with large features overhead. You're most likely to wet loose avalanches in snow that hasn't fully transitioned to melt-forms after several nights without a solid refreeze. These areas will be on high elevation northerly aspects and in remote areas of the zone near the Cascade Crest. Sticky snow might be the best indicator for these areas of slightly elevated hazard. 

    (3/25/2022) Example wet loose avalanches from the Cle Elum River drainage. Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

We're in for another day of very warm weather on Tuesday before temperatures finally cool off on Wednesday. The combined stretch of mild weather has created weak, wet and saturated snow. In many places, the snowpack is unsupportable, and you might sink deeply into wet, rotten snow.  On Sunday I rode at Blewett Pass and found a saturated, unsupportable and nearly fully transitioned snowpack with minimal surface refreeze. Very shallow avalanches were not entraining snow, as one would typically find in a summer-like snowpack. The difference between a summer snowpack and this one, however is the amount that you sink in. The potential for sporadic but isolated larger, wet avalanches may slowly increase with each day of this warm spell. Information has been limited, so be sure to observe, and travel accordingly.

Prior to last week, observers had documented weaker, faceted grains or surface hoar overlying a crust from early March on W-N-E aspects from Stemilt Basin to Icicle Creek and other areas to the north and south. This same layer has likely been the source for deeper slab avalanches in western parts of the North and Central Cascades during this warm spell.

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