Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Another day of warm, sunny weather will keep concerns for wet avalanche activity elevated. Pay attention to the snow surface, and once it gets wet more than a couple inches, or if you see rollerballs or small slides running down steep sunny slopes, it's time to shift to shadier aspects. Conditions vary greatly throughout the zone, and early season hazards such as creeks, rocks and stumps exist at lower elevations, all things to keep on your mind during your travels. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Monday is the second day of intense sunlight and warm temperatures. We expect a solid crust formed overnight, but it may break down quickly on aspects that face directly into the sun. We're not quite sure how much wet avalanche activity will occur after previous warmups - it's up to you to identify whether a slide may happen and shift away from suspect terrain.

    If you start sinking in to wet snow more than a couple inches, avoid steep terrain and areas below these slopes. If you see any rollerballs running downslope, it may mean that wet loose avalanches could happen soon after. Those are good indicators to avoid nearby similar terrain.  Shifting to shadier aspects, or maybe even just transitioning from one side of a subtle ridge to the other might mean the difference between finding wet, heavy snow that could slide versus snow that has not been affected by the warming.

    Despite the weak December sun, it has enough impact on southerly aspects to create at least some wet avalanche activity. Continued avalanches into Monday will vary greatly depending on inversions and other factors which could affect elevations and areas in the zone differently. However, we don't expect as much activity as springtime cycles where the sun is much more intense and wetting impacts further into the snowpack. 

    (11/30/2024)

    Wet loose avalanche activity began on Saturday  around Mt Rainier. 

Avalanche Discussion

Winds are still transporting snow at upper elevations, and you might be able to find and trigger a wind slab avalanche. A week ago we were just coming out of an impressive storm cycle with new snow amounts adding up to several feet. Many storm and wind slab avalanches were reported. Since then, an occasional observation with a wind slab avalanche comes in. Residual or small new slabs might still exist on northerly aspects at upper elevations. Your largest concern is triggering a slab in high consequence terrain where you might get buried deep in a gully or dragged over rocks, through trees, or over a cliff. 

Our snowpack at mid elevations is 4-6ft deep at mid elevations, and is mainly right side up- aside from our new south-facing crusts and wet snow. Despite the deep snowpack for the start of December, early-season conditions still exist. Open creeks, downed logs, shallowly buried rocks, and numerous trees litter the landscape. Allow yourself extra time to deal with these potential hazards if you’re out enjoying the nice day.

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