Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Blowing snow, shooting cracks, and recent slab avalanches are signs that wind transported snow is unstable. Wet snow avalanches are possible in areas where you encounter heavy, wet snow. Stick to slopes less than 35 degrees where you find signs of instability.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    If it rains, it will rapidly destabilize the upper portions of the snowpack. The typical progression of wet loose avalanches involves rollerballs and pinwheels that lead to point releases. Anticipate unstable wet snow if the snow is heavy and sticky. If you are getting rained on, you won’t want to be hanging out on or below large paths. Don’t linger in terrain traps where avalanche debris can concentrate and be aware of steep terrain overhead where avalanches can start.

    (12/26/2024)

    A small loose wet avalanche triggered with a ski cut. Tumwater Mtn, 2,000ft, ESE

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Yet another storm rolls through starting on Friday night accompanied by sustained moderate wind throughout the day on Saturday. Areas near the Cascade Crest could see up to 1 foot of new snow, with less accumulations further east. This will build fresh wind slabs on lee slopes at middle and upper elevations. Blowing snow will direct you to where slopes are being freshly loaded. Deeper, older slabs could still be found just below ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies. Fresh slab formation can overload lingering older slabs, producing a bigger and even more consequential avalanche.  Look for wind loaded snow where you encounter hard, uneven snow surfaces and cornices.

    (12/27/2024)

    A small skier triggered wind slab avalanche in the East Central zone. The crown depth is 18 inches (12/27/24).

Avalanche Discussion

There is a lot of uncertainty about how stable conditions are right now, especially at upper elevations where we lack data. All of the ingredients are there for the aforementioned avalanche problems - new snow and wind higher up, warm temperatures and rain lower down - but how well glued together things are is up for debate. Observers reported a small, skier triggered wind slab avalanche on Friday in Stemilt Basin that ran on the Solstice Crust. Other reports from Mission Ridge and the Teanaway pointed towards good bonding to the Crust and better stability overall. Additionally, weather models show variability in where the freezing levels will be on Saturday; they may creep higher than forecasted. In times like this, I don't plan to be the one waiting at the bottom of an avalanche path to find out how stable it is. Great dry snow riding and skiing can be found lower angle, sheltered slopes!

After Thursday's powerful storm, you could still find older slabs loitering in atypical locations i.e. lower down on slopes and in exposed terrain at lower elevations that have not seen rain and warmth. If you find signs of wind transported snow, take the time to investigate if the lee slope is wind loaded before stepping onto it. If you find cracking and collapsing in more sheltered areas, you have found storm slab instability. Step back from steep slopes if you encounter these signs.

If you've ever found yourself wondering which direction you should look for wind loading if you encounter rippled, uneven snow surfaces, the best way I have found to think about it is that the "pointed" ridges of the ripples "point" towards the prevailing wind direction. It is a similar concept to how riming on trees usually happens on the side of the tree facing the wind.

With continued bouts of rain at lower elevations, contending with low tide conditions remains an issue. Watch out for exposed hazards such as stumps, downed logs, and open creeks.

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