Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Highlights

A wet, warm, and windy storm is creating dangerous avalanche conditions today. Mountain conditions are rapidly changing, and the avalanche danger is expected to reach CONSIDERABLE by this afternoon. Avalanches can fail on persistent weak layers of faceted snow that exist on all slopes that face W-N-SE. This problem is most pronounced near treeline and above, where the danger is CONSIDERABLE. Below treeline slopes have a MODERATE danger and human-triggered avalanches are possible on these slopes. Today's storm is accompanied by strong SW winds that will deposit fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow on the exact same slopes that harbor a weak early-season snowpack. Sensitive soft slabs of wind-drifed snow will be found on leeward slopes near treeline and above that face W-N-SE Slopes that face S-SW were mostly bare ground before this storm and have a LOW danger. Travel will be difficult on these slopes due to thin coverage.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Backcountry observers have reported weak, faceted snow on most slopes that previously held snow. This includes slopes facing W-N-E-SE. Shady slopes that hold the most snow will be the bulls-eye areas to watch out for. I am very suspicious of mid-elevation, protected slopes that have the most structured snowpack. These slopes are capable of producing avalanches failing on facets at the ground. Conditions are rapidly changing today, and the avalanche danger is rising.

    Travel Advice: Make conservative terrain choices. Today is a good day to gather more information about how our shallow and weak snowpack is handling the new load. Audible collapses and cracking in the snowpack are signs that the weak layers are failing under the weight of the new snow.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    SW winds are moving at the perfect speeds to blow and drift snow. Fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow will be deposited near treeline and above on slopes that face W-N-E-SE. These slabs will continue to develop on leeward slopes as the storm progresses today. Expect any fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow to be sensitive to the weight of skiers and riders.

Special Announcement

We have several events coming up to kick off the winter season:

Thursday, December 5 - FREE Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk 6 PM at the Grand County Public Library

Saturday, December 7 - 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) - Information and tickets available here.

Saturday, December 14 - 3rd Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party, 6 PM at the MARC. Information and tickets available here.

Geyser Pass Road: Expect challenging driving conditions as new snow is falling on a slick, and icy surface.

Recent Activity

No recent avalanche activity has been reported.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 5" 72 Hour Snow: 5" Season Total Snow: 31" Depth at Gold Basin: 15"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 20 G 28 Temp: 26° F Percent of Normal: 97%

Weather

A potent storm is affecting the La Sal Range. It is currently snowing in Gold Basin. It is 26 degrees, and temperatures will remain in the upper 20s today. This warm, wet storm will bring significant water to the range. Heavy snow will be accompanied by SW winds blowing 20-30 MPH and gusting into the 40s MPH. Snow will continue overnight, and the storm will exit our region on Wednesday morning. I'm optimistic for 12-18" of snow, and some models are showing even bigger numbers.

General Conditions

There is 5" of new snow and 0.9" of SWE as of 6 AM, and the total depth in Gold Basin is 15". Prior to today's storm, overall coverage was very thin, and mountain travel was somewhat difficult. Solar aspects were showing bare ground, while some Northerly aspects were holding 2-3 feet of snow. The additional snow will make traveling in the mountains a little easier, but it still won't be game on for skiing and riding. If you are attempting to make turns, I would exercise caution, as rocks and logs are a real threat, given our shallow snowpack. Your best bet for turns are slopes that previously held snow, but those are the exact same slopes that will have avalanche problems.

Today's storm will create our first avalanche problems of the season. Moderate to Strong SW winds will whip up a fresh batch of wind slabs near treeline and above. Backcountry travelers should be on the lookout for pillowy looking, wind-loaded slopes near treeline and above. These slabs of wind-drifted snow will be deposited on top of a very weak, early season snowpack. Late October and early November snowfall has been sitting dormant under weeks of high pressure. This has created a weak foundation of faceted grains. Today's load will be the first real test of this weak snow.

We have received a lot of great early-season observations, check them out here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

It’s never too early to start thinking about avalanches. Here are a few things to consider doing:

  • We have over 5 hours of free online learning at the Know Before You Go Website
  • Sign up for an on-snow class or in in person Know Before you Go Event.
  • Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter. Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware. Inspect your shovel and probe. Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and updating the firmware if it is an electric version or getting your canister refilled if it's not electronic

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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