Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Human triggered avalanches are likely as we receive more snow overnight and through the day on Saturday. Avoid traveling on steep slopes, and in particular, ones where wind drifted the snow into thicker slabs. Small wet avalanche at lower elevations may occur as well. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Human triggered avalanches are likely on Saturday. Chances of triggering an avalanche are highest in wind-loaded areas, but uncertainty exists as to how reactive the new snow layer may be even in non wind-loaded areas. Particularly when temperatures increase in the afternoon, as snow continues to fall and winds transport snow, expect more reactive slabs in more areas. Avalanche could be about 6 inches deep to possibly a foot or more in depth. 

    Track new snow depth and distribution as you gain elevation and change aspects. Look for clues like wind scoured snow surfaces, cornices, and drifts to show wind patterns near you. Feel for "upside down" snow, where surface snow is heavier than softer underlying snow. Especially if you see any signs of recent avalanches or experience long, shooting cracks, use these as obvious clues to avoid steep nearby terrain. When in doubt, avoid slopes greater than 35°.

    (12/27/2024)

    Debris from a cornice failure and a small natural avalanche are visible on the slope ahead. With new snow over the debris and the crown filled in it's safe to say this occurred during the latest storm. East aspect at 5400'.

Avalanche Discussion

Small amounts of wet avalanche activity may happen naturally or with a human trigger at lower elevations. Depending on how much the temperatures bump up in the afternoon, wet avalanche activity, if any, could shift a little higher than earlier in the day. If you see natural avalanches, if snow is wet and heavy, or you can push wet snow downhill, limit your exposure to steep nearby slopes. 

In general, elevations below 3500ft have minimal snow. In the 4000-4500ft range, near the top of the lower elevation band,there's more snow, it's colder and all of a sudden it becomes winter. Conditions here may behave more similarly to the mid elevation band. 

The Solstice Crust, buried on 12/21 is 2-3ft beneath the snow surface in most of the zone and avalanche activity should remain above the crust. Snow from Wednesday night to Thursday makes up a majority of the surface layer. We saw less avalanche activity from when that snow came in than we expected. The layers are settling and bonding quickly. Stubborn instabilities were found about a foot down in the snowpack on Thursday in the Baker backcountry. The only known natural slab avalanche was the one which a forecaster saw during their outing at Excelsior on Friday (avalanche problem photo). 

About 6-8 inches of snow should fall overnight, and a foot may fall during the day Saturday with moderate winds. Temperatures will bump up a small amount on Saturday afternoon. Avalanche danger may differ from the forecast if the weather is different. 

Regions covered