Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Yesterday's storm has exited as of this morning, but avalanche conditions will remain dangerous toady. We received 1-2' of new snow over the past 24 hours, which will likely still produce large avalanches today. This new snow has added more weight to the weak layer of buried surface hoar that is now buried around 4-6' deep and may still produce a very large avalanche. We need to give the snowpack more time to settle out and avoid traveling in steep terrain today.

FRIDAY'S AVALANCHE OUTLOOK:   We are expecting to see the weather quiet down tomorrow, which should improve avalanche conditions. The main concerns will be the same as today, with a slightly lower chance of triggering an avalanche. The most likely places to run into trouble will be in steep, wind-loaded terrain at upper elevations. We will publish our next avalanche forecast on Saturday.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

End of Season Operations: We have transitioned to our late season schedule. We will issue avalanche forecasts on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday for the second half of April. We will issue our final forecast of the season on Sunday, April 27.

Risk management research: If you have been traveling in avalanche terrain for at least one season and want to help avalanche researchers develop new tools to assist individuals with managing risk in avalanche terrain, check out this 1-2 minute survey. Participants will be entered to win prizes from Jones Snowboards, BCA, and more!

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Wet avalanches remain a concern in all areas today. We have limited info with the extent of natural avalanche activity during yesterday's storm, but with rain up to 1500 to 2000', it is likely there has been a variety of wet snow avalanches. Glide avalanches will remain a concern today. These are large and unpredictable, and the only way to manage the problem is to avoid traveling under open glide cracks.

    (4/15/2025)

    Fresh glide avalanche seen in PMS Bowl on Magnum Ridge. This overran the common skin track to gain the ridge.

    Photo: Ari Stiassny

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Recent avalanches: Hopefully we will get a chance to survey avalanche activity from yesterday's storm as visibility improves today. The last known avalanches were several large cornices that broke along Seattle Ridge above Warm-Up Bowl. These failed all the way back to the snowmachine track along the ridge, a good reminder that they often fail much further from the edge than we expect.

    We got clobbered by another round of snow and wind yesterday, and conditions will remain dangerous today. Most of the precipitation should already be passed, but sustained easterly winds will continue to blow snow today. We're concerned with all of the new snow problems, including storm slabs, wind slabs, and loose snow avalanches. We should be able to find good surface conditions on slopes that remained sheltered from the winds, but we need to be really cautious as we travel today. This means avoiding steep terrain while the snowpack adjusts to this new load.

    Cornices have been growing and collapsing during the active weather over the past two weeks. We can expect this to continue as the wind keeps blowing today. Avoid lingering under large cornices, and give them plenty of space if you are traveling along ridgelines.

    Estimated storm totals from Tuesday at midnight through Thursday morning: 

    • Girdwood: 2.5" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)/2' snow above 2000'
    • Turnagain Pass: 1.5" SWE/1-1.5' snow
    • Summit Lake:  0.7" SWE/6-8" snow
    • Lost Lake: 1.5-2" SWE/10-18" snow

    (4/17/2025)

    Snow totals from 4 am Thursday through 4 am Friday. Most of the snow in the northern zones will fall between 4 am and 6 am, but the storm is expected to linger in Seward through the day.

    Photo: NWS Anchorage

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    This most recent round of wind and snow has added extra weight to the layer of buried surface hoar that we have been tracking since mid February. It has been several weeks since we last saw an avalanche on this layer, but we still can't rule it out- especially the day after it just got a heavy load of new snow. It is very hard to tell just how reactive this layer is, but this most recent event has increased the likelihood of triggering a large avalanche. 

    This layer has been tricky to assess, often giving misleading test results even when conditions are dangerous. Keep this in mind if you are moving into steep terrain today. The biggest issues will be on wind-loaded slopes, but you may also find this problem in sheltered terrain. With problems like this, the best option is to just avoid steep slopes.

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