Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Where there is still snow on the ground, there may be instability to contend with. If you're falling deeply through wet, sloppy snow, avoid consequential terrain where an avalanche could travel far and wide. If you experience cracking and collapsing in dry, wind-drifted snow, pay attention to what sort of hazards you could be carried over if you're knocked down by a small avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet snow avalanches might come in a wide variety of shapes and sizes on Monday, ranging anywhere from small wet loose slides to big and deadly glide avalanches. It's more likely you will encounter these smaller loose snow avalanches, but it might not be the best day to test your luck with these bigger beasts on the table. Your best approach will be to minimize the time you spend in consequential terrain to reduce exposure. This includes on or below large paths where slides could grow large enough to bury and kill you, terrain traps where avalanche debris can concentrate, or close to cornices, especially if they're sagging. Until water has time to drain out or refreeze, avalanches will be of concern. Consider avoiding avalanche terrain until the snowpack has fully refrozen. Don't step out onto a slope that has a glide crack on it. Hazard is low at lower elevations because there is no snow left on southerly facing slopes and very little on northerlies.

    (4/5/2025) Both new and old wet snow avalanches of various kinds are visible in this photo, primarily on the slopes facing towards the left side of the photo.

    Original caption: Many older avalanches in Napeequa vally. The slides on the east side of the valley are below open rock slabs, so may have been glide avalanches.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    If you make it into terrain that holds new dry snow, keep an eye out for signs that exposed terrain is wind loaded. Wind slabs typically form just below ridgelines and in gully or chute-shaped terrain features. Clear signs of wind transport include dune-like drifts, cornice formation, and blowing snow. Another sign to pay attention to is if the snow feels denser than it did in more sheltered areas and if it looks rippled or unevenly distributed. You can dig a shallow hand pit to see if a surface crust formed before new snow fell; if so, it could act as a slick sliding surface. In addition to shooting cracks from your equipment and audible collapsing, recent natural slab avalanches are very good reasons to avoid exposed terrain steeper than 35 degrees. Although small, an avalanche could knock you over and carry you over hazards such as rocks and cliffs.

    (3/21/2025)

    An intentionally triggered wind slab avalanche in the Swath.Chiwaukum Mtns, NE, 6,300ft

    Photo: Public

Avalanche Discussion

There is a high degree of uncertainty in this forecast. There are a lot of variables at play, and we lack on the ground information about conditions throughout the zone.

What we do know with some confidence is that the snowpack has been getting warm during the day, it's seeing only a superficial refreeze overnight, that there is still lingering moisture from the atmospheric river (AR) that happened at the end of March, and that the surface snow has been staying more dry on north facing aspects. This tells us that the snowpack is probably compromised to some degree in many areas and could be easily influenced by active weather yet to come. Many thanks to observers near Trinity and Jolly Mountain for providing some of this information.

What we know about the weather is that we are turning towards a big change. Precipitation will fall primarily overnight Sunday into Monday - in the form of snow higher up and as rain lower down - and that it will be accompanied by wind. A second pulse of precipitation - more so in the form of snow - will begin impacting the zone late afternoon.

We think, therefore, that peak instability will be overnight. However, we caution you from planning an aggressive tour armed with such an insufficient level of information. Skiing in the rain isn't fun (or safe) anyway; it's probably worth waiting it out for better weather.

You can help reduce that uncertainty by submitting a public observation here or on the AVY mobile app.

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