Northern New Mexico

It's possible to trigger a large persistent slab avalanche in steep terrain where you find cohesive slabs up to several feet deep on top of weak faceted snow and depth hoar below.  The most dangerous slopes exist at upper elevations on north and east aspects, and in many cases are also the most enticing to ski or ride.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees, paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible whumpfs as these are indications that you've found unstable snow. 

Watch for increasingly large and widespread wet loose avalanches today as the weather heats up.  Pay attention to slopes that are in the direct sunlight and watch out for roller balls and pinwheels, as these are signs that the recent snow is getting wet.  These avalanches typically start as small point releases but fan out and grow as they entrain more snow.  On many slopes of interest, wet loose avalanches could also step down into deeper buried weak layers, forming a larger more destructive avalanche.

A tranquil, spring day is on the table today as we lurch an hour forward into Daylight Savings time.  The time change is a good reminder of the intensifying sun angle at our southerly latitude here in New Mexico, and today we will feel those effects with bluebird skies and only a light Northern breeze allowing conditions to heat up significantly.  Remember to bring globstopper wax if you're heading out today, as the transitions between cold, dry snow and warm, wet snow will become drastic.  I recommend getting out early and trying to stay ahead of or away from the sun, as it will quickly heat up slopes that are getting direct rays, leading to tricky and eventually more unstable conditions within the recent snow.  Backcountry travel conditions have certainly improved over the last week with these last two storms, but there are definitely lots of ground hazards out there still, especially below 11,000 feet where we've struggled to retain snow pretty much all season.  Get out there early and keep your avalanche radar on high today.  The fresh fluffy snow on the surface will heat up on quickly today and create a more widespread wet loose shed cycle on solar aspects, a pattern that will naturally follow the sun and also serve as an additional trigger for deeper persistent weak layers on the same slopes.

On northerly, easterly, and some specific west-facing terrain, a strong over weak snowpack structure abounds and our persistent weak layers remain in mid-winter form despite a period of record-breaking warm temperatures to end the month of February.  In particular, faceted crusts and depth hoar are situated between 1 and 4 feet beneath the snow surface, and these weak layers have been under a pattern of incremental loading over the last six days with two primary storms.  Although neither of these systems brought a ton of weight all at once, the totality of 10 to 17 inches of snow (0.7-0.9" of SWE), and periods of strong wind are all adding up and stressing weak layers. The most dangerous slopes face north and east at upper elevations. Below treeline, northerly facing slopes will also be suspect as these slopes contain depth hoar that's easy to impact as it's only 1 to 2 feet below the snow surface.  

Very strong winds last Thursday have pressed the snow into harder slabs that may be able to hold more weight than what you'll find below treeline. Although these slopes may be able to hold more weight, they'll be primed for a skier or rider to get these weak layers to collapse and trigger a persistent slab avalanche.  Shooting cracks and loud audible whumpfs are signs of unstable snow, but it's best today to assume that any slope you get on has this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak until proven otherwise. Chances are you'll be hard-pressed not to find it, so you'll have to think about the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche before commiting to a slope.

Yesterday's storm slabs weren't overly reactive as the snow that fell was very low density and the storm didn't bring a whole lot of sustained wind.  However, this low density new snow will take a lot of heat on solar aspects today and lead to a widespread wet loose cycle.  Expect to see natural loose snow avalanches today in your travels, particularly in steeper terrain that's seeing direct sunlight.  As the day heats up, it will be increasingly easy to trigger these wet loose avalanches beneath your skis or boards.  Many of these avalanches will be small, but in larger terrain they could grow to be larger as they entrain more and more of the new snow on their way downhill.  It also bears mentioning that the high likelihood of wet loose slides today carries an increased risk of triggering persistent slab avalanches, as these smaller avalanches can serve as excellent triggers for weak layers that aren't all that far from the surface on solar aspects.  This kind of a one-two punch is a dangerous setup to play with and we highly recommend playing it safe and staying off of slopes above 35 degrees today.  

Hopefully we can start talking about spring snowpack conditions in the coming weeks, but we definitely aren't there yet.  It's been a challenging season in terms of conditions and stability with such widespread weak layers and only a handful of significant storms, but it remains in your best interest to stay off of big lines and stick to lower angle terrain.  If you're tired of hearing the same message, today's weather will be great to get out and enjoy other outdoor activities like climbing, cycling, or even boating. Stay safe out there and enjoy the extra evening light!