Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The day starts with LOW danger while the snowpack is frozen.  As temperatures increase and solar radiation warms the snowpack, the danger will rise to MODERATE.  Wet avalanches may become an issue earlier in the day due to a weaker refreeze overnight and higher temperatures.  Roller balls, pinwheels, or sinking past your ankles in wet snow indicate worsening conditions.  Slab avalanche issues linger on near and above treeline, northerly aspects where you encounter a slab above a crust in the upper snowpack; you can reduce risk by carefully assessing the snowpack and choosing lower-consequence slopes free of terrain traps.   

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wednesday night's mediocre refreeze and Thursday's soaring temperatures shorten the window for safe travel.  Manage for shallow wet avalanches once the upper few inches of snow get wet.  Wet loose avalanches should entrain just last week's new snow, and most are relatively small in size.  Long, steep terrain could grow larger or a few slopes could propagate wider as thin wet slabs.  Rollerballs, pinwheels, and ankle-deep wet snow indicate decreasing stability.  Move to less consequential terrain as the problem develops.  You can avoid wet avalanches by traveling early while snow surfaces are frozen or moving to colder aspects as the day warms up.   

    These recent wet loose avalanches on Gothic exemplify the average size you can expect to encounter later today. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    New and windblown snow last week formed slabs about 1 to 2 feet thick, especially on terrain features favored by westerly winds.  These slabs have bonded well in most terrain, with a few potential exceptions where they formed over a faceted crust.  This buried weak layer is variable across the landscape.  Carefully assess slab size, bonding, and terrain consequences before riding on suspect terrain highlighted by the rose.   Problematic slabs are rare below treeline and have improved on sunnier aspects from ongoing warming.     

    There's a rare chance you can still trigger a deep persistent slab on high, northerly aspects where the snowpack remains winter-like. Terrain where the snowpack is unusually shallow due to wind effects or previous avalanche activity is most concerning.  Choose deeper, more uniform snowpacks over thin, rocky areas to reduce your risk.   

    This persistent slab was triggered by a shallow wet loose avalanche on Teocalli Mountain (4/7/2025).  

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures climb higher on Thursday after a weaker refreeze overnight.  Safe travel conditions will not last as long as in previous days.  Wind speeds will likely relax on Thursday, which may expedite the warming process on some upper-elevation slopes.  Loose avalanche activity may spread into north aspects at lower elevations. Wet Loose avalanches most likely entrain only last week's snowfall (recent avalanche activity). Still, as the prolonged warming trend continues, the chances increase for loose avalanches to gouge into a saturated snowpack and increase in size.  Use caution when encountering a punchy, unsupportive snowpack or traveling over high-consequence slopes. 

The chances of triggering a dry slab avalanche have slowly decreased over the past week. However, the problem has not gone to bed.  The most recent avalanches on Teocalli and Schuylkill Ridge highlight this potential issue where slabs exist above the April Fool's crust 1 to 2 feet deep.  Stability tests for the past three days produced propagating results on this layer (Teocalli, Cinnamon, Elkton). This further supports the need to evaluate slopes highlighted by the Persistent Slab rose, especially if you travel in high-consequence terrain.  The threat of thin, Wet Slabs trickles upward as meltwater water drains towards weak layers in the upper snowpack on aspects highlighted by the Persistent Slab rose (except due north slopes near and above treeline).  The threat will increase on Friday and Saturday as overnight refreezes become shorter or non-existent.  

Events: CBAC's Party for the People is at the Talk of the Town next Thursday.  Come celebrate the end of the season with us!  (Don't worry, we'll be forecasting for at least a few more weeks.)

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