Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Shallow wind-drifted slabs could be encountered on leeward terrain features.  Avoid terrain where you feel a stiff snow surface or see smooth, pillow-shaped deposits below ridgelines, underneath cornices, or cross-loaded in gullies.  You will likely trigger small, loose avalanches on steep slopes sheltered from the sun and wind.  Loose snow avalanches can be big enough to knock you down and push you into rocks and trees.  You can manage loose slides through sluff management techniques or choose slopes less than 35 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Since 12/9, several northwest to southwest wind events have formed thin slabs out of the minor amounts of snow available for transport. These wind-drifted slabs are most commonly found at higher elevations below leeward ridgelines and rollovers on east-facing terrain. They can also be found around the northern half of the compass in a few concave terrain features that collect drifting snow, such as gullies. These slabs are often hard and difficult to trigger, but some formed over weak, faceted snow that is slow to heal, making for variable feedback.  Assess recent wind-loading patterns and consider avoiding previously wind-loaded terrain features in high-consequence terrain, especially where slabs are harder and thicker, making them difficult to manage.   

     

     

    This avalanche is estimated to have run Saturday night 12/21. This terrain is a good example of a concave terrain feature that developed the persistent slab avalanche problem.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    In terrain that has been protected from the sun and wind, the snowpack is growing increasingly weak and cohesionless.  Weather conditions make human-triggered sluffs larger and more common as the shallow snowpack facets.  These point-release instabilities are relatively small and easy to recognize. Still, they can spell trouble by pushing you into trees, rocks, or gullies, especially in long, steep terrain where they gain more volume.  Use sluff management techniques or move to less consequential, lower slope angles to manage the problem. 

    A small dry loose avalanche that was skier triggered from a very steep slope and then ran into lower slope angles once it gained volume.  

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche problems can be found in two different flavors: shallow Persistent Slabs in wind-drifted terrain and loose avalanches in wind-sheltered terrain.  The Persistent Slab problem on wind-loaded slopes presents a greater hazard as the potential size could bury or hurt you.  Over the past week, a string of natural and human-triggered avalanches have been documented on leeward terrain features.  On Wednesday, forecasters experienced cracking and collapsing in stiff, drifted snow along the top of Schuylkill Ridge, which suggests slabs remain sensitive to a person's weight.  Even though slabs are not particularly big, expect them to gouge into the weak snowpack and entrain more mass as they run.  You are more likely to encounter this problem in the Northwest Mountains as more snow has accumulated recently; however, we have far less data from the Southeast Mountains.  Even though the avalanche danger remains LOW at upper elevations in the Southeast Mountains, maintain a sharp eye for signs of slab formation on leeward terrain features.

Sheltered terrain, with soft surfaces and a weak snowpack, presents a loose snow hazard.  The snowpack continues to weaken as it remains shallow and seasonably cold.  Observers have noted triggering loose avalanches on steep, sun/wind-protected slopes that take most of the snowpack out.  The simplest way to manage this problem is through slope angle.  Slopes around 35 degrees or less are unlikely to loose avalanche and likely provide better riding conditions.  As slope angles near or exceed 40 degrees, expect loose snow avalanche to become likely.  Sunny, low-elevation slopes have surface crusts preventing a loose avalanche problem. 

Events:  Our first Fireside Chat of the year is this Sunday (12/22) at 6 p.m. at the Eldo.  Andy Sovick(Beacon Guidebooks/OnX Maps) will chat about Maps and Tour Planning.  These events are free and open to all.

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