Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

As avalanche conditions continue to improve following the war zone that was last week's storm and avalanche cycle, the highest quality powder on colder aspects is guarded by some lingering land mines:  slabs that can break up to several feet thick on weak layers close to the ground.  Those land mines may not give obvious warning signs.  Safer travel options are on south-facing terrain or on avalanche paths that clearly ran last week. You can always choose terrain consistently less than 30 degrees when in doubt.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Last week's storm produced a widespread avalanche cycle on November 26-27. Many avalanches failed 2 to 4 feet deep on weak faceted snow that formed earlier this winter. The snowpack is gradually adjusting now, decreasing the obvious signs of instability as the problem becomes more isolated and difficult to trigger. The most problematic slopes face west, north, and east, along with some higher-elevation, southeast-facing slopes.  Slopes that naturally avalanched during the storm offer safer options on those aspects.  Carefully evaluate the snowpack and terrain consequences before traveling on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees where the snow surface is smooth and free of obvious avalanche debris.  

    A remotely triggered persistent slab on a west-facing slope above the Slate River was triggered on 11/28. This slope survived the natural cycle and had the necessary ingredients: a cohesive slab over weak, early-season snow.  

Avalanche Discussion

Looking at the Avalanches over Time graphic in our database, you'll see the sharp downturn in avalanche activity after the storm ended last Wednesday. In fact, we've only received reports of one human triggered avalanche since then, and CBMR has reported a lack of notable explosive results as they work to open more terrain.   This differs from the typical pattern with smaller, more gradual storms on persistent weak layers. Usually, we see a continuous string of post-storm remotely triggered avalanches as people venture into the terrain adjacent to steep start zones, along with the occasional accidental or intentional trigger.    Why so quiet?  Certainly, backcountry use is down this time of year and folks have been choosing conservative terrain.  I suspect another major reason is that the atmospheric river event delivered such an abrupt and significant load (2.3" to 3.7" SWE in 36 hours) that it effectively flushed the slab, weak layer, or both on many slopes.  The result is that the distribution of problematic slopes is more isolated, but those slopes that remain intact are still a concern.  The likelihood of triggering one of those remaining land mines is decreasing now as overlying slabs either strengthen in deep areas or facet away shallow areas.  By carefully assessing the snowpack and surface clues, you can identify which slopes may still hold onto the entire season's snowpack.  If you are looking to ride steep terrain on the problematic aspects highlighted by the persistent slab rose, steering towards paths that ran sometime during the storm is a safer option. Look for evidence of moving snow, debris behind trees, old crowns, and shove your gloves into the snowpack to help confirm you are on terrain that has already flushed.  Regarding the natural flush, there is always more variability and uncertainty in wind-affected terrain at higher elevations, and recognizing which slopes remain intact is more difficult.  When in doubt, the low angle terrain is riding great!  

Northwest winds over the past few days caused some drifting at higher elevations, leaving smaller wind slabs on some leeward features. These are expected to be mostly healed up now,  but are worth considering if you find hard, wind stiffened snow above high consequences in steep terrain.  

Events: Avalanche Awareness Night is this Saturday at the Center for the Arts. Doors open at 6, show starts at 7. We will have presentations for the first half and live music for the second half of the night. The Beacon Brush Up is then on Sunday behind the Crested Butte Community School from 9 a.m.- 2 p.m. More information can be found on our website.

 

 

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