Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

An upslope storm approaches, but we'll only see light snowfall and increasing winds on Wednesday. With this, expect increasing danger so be ready to take a step back in your terrain selection. To complicate matters, buried layers of faceted snow may rest above a stout crust, and thicker wind slabs may still lurk waiting for a trigger. Steer clear of steeper, unsupported or heavily drifted slopes at upper elevations, or mid elevations if you observe active wind transport. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Expect freshly forming slabs as easterly winds pick up during the day. These could be quite sensitive, especially if they form over buried faceted grains. You might still find reactive, older slabs formed by strong west winds earlier in the week. Any slab could fracture on, or step down to the early February Crust and become larger than you might hope for.

    Look for signs of active wind drifting and surface textures from wind to clue you into fresh slabs. You can use small test slopes to check if the snow could fracture when you provoke it, but the combination of shallow, fresh slabs and thicker, old slabs could trickier conditions than meets the eye with the danger shown. With increasing winds, expect increasing danger during the day, so be ready to take a step back in your terrain selection. It'll be a good day to stick to well supported features, and consider avoiding those that are heavily drifted and steep or unsupported in the alpine.

    (2/13/2024)

    Skier triggered wind slab on the early February Crust on a NE aspect at 6,500ft in adjacent Stevens Pass on Tuesday.

Avalanche Discussion

An upslope storm should approach the area on Wednesday, but we'll mostly just get wind from it during the day, with some light snowfall potential. We expect more snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and conditions to become dangerous for the southern and eastern half of the zone by Thursday. 

A skier triggered a 1.5ft deep slab on a north aspect at 6,500ft on Jim Hill on Tuesday. This is in the Stevens Pass zone, but its far enough east that you could find similar conditions in the western portion of the East Central. Observers have been finding buried layers of faceted snow above the stout crust from early February (EFC). On Tuesday, NWAC Forecasters traveled into the Mission Ridge area and found 6-8 inches above the EFC. They also reported reactive wind slabs failing on small surface hoar and facets above the crust. These slabs stayed small (< 1 ft) but easily triggered due to these weak grains. On Friday, an observer traveled up to 8,000ft in the Stuart Range and found little signs of instability. Another observer also found surface hoar over the early February crust, including myself last Tuesday at Blewett Pass.

You’ll generally find 3-5 inches of recent snow over the EFC, with more the higher you go. Expect thin conditions at lower elevations with many hazards, such as open creeks, downed trees, and rough surfaces. 

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