Avalanche forecast

Provo

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on mid and upper elevation slopes facing east and southeast for avalanches failing in a persistent weak layer buried 2-3' deep. There is a MODERATE danger on slopes facing west through south and southeast for wet snow avalanches.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind-loaded slopes facing northwest through northeast at the mid and upper elevations. Low elevation northerly slopes have a LOW danger.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Strong winds this past week created dense slabs of wind-drifted snow at the upper elevations and some mid-elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast. Some of these wind drifts may be reactive if they formed on top of graupel. The graupel layers vary, but they can often be found below steeper cliff bands where graupel can pool (accumulate). Any recent wind drifts were covered by snowfall Wednesday night, so you will need to dig down 1-2' to search for them.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    On some "solar" slopes - particularly those facing east and southeast - there exists a persistent weak layer (PWL) of facets just above a crust which was buried by storms beginning February 14. Mark Staples's photo below shows this structure which can be found about 3' below the snow surface. The reactivity of this layer varies from one slope to the next, but an avalanche in Caribou Basin in the Salt lake mountains on Wednesday failed on this layer, and it is possible Thursday's large avalanche in Mary Ellen Gulch may have also failed on this layer.

    I'm handling this problem by avoiding it and heading to northerly facing slopes where the snow quality is superior and this avalanche problem doesn't exist.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Strong sunshine and warm temperatures will create wet-loose avalanches on steep sunny slopes. On mid and upper elevation slopes facing southeast, any wet avalanches may trigger larger slab avalanches failing on the PWL. Wet snow is the easiest avalanche problem to avoid by simply moving to shady slopes once the snow surface becomes wet.

Recent Activity

We received a report late Thursday evening of a very large avalanche in Mary Ellen Gulch in American Fork Canyon as shown in the video below. Details are scant and unconfirmed, but it is estimated at 1,500' wide and 2' deep, possibly breaking on the layer of faceted snow above a crust. UAC forecasters will visit the scene on Friday.

Special Announcement

Join the UAC and Inspired Summit Adventures for the grand opening of our new Transceiver Training Park at Pinebrook, Sunday, February 25, from 3:00-6:00PM.

Snow and Weather

6 am: Skies are clear under a nearly-full moon (the February full moon is named - appropriately - the Snow Moon) and temperatures range through the teens. Winds are from the west and light though the mid elevations, with gusts in the 20's mph at 11,000'.

Today: Sunshine with temperatures warming into the upper 20's F at upper elevations and mid 30's F at low and mid elevations. Winds will be from the west and remain light, with 11,000' gusts in the 20's mph.

Extended: A sunny weekend with mild temperatures. Winds increase on Monday ahead of what currently appears as a remarkably-strong cold front with heavy snow and strong winds by Tuesday.

Travel and riding conditions are superb, although some slopes may be crusted due to sunshine and greenhousing on Thursday.

❄️ Storm totals since Monday, February 19:

  • Provo Mountains: 8-12" snow with 2.75" SWE
  • Upper Cottonwoods: 12-27" snow with 2.0 - 3.30" SWE (Snow/Water Equivalent)
  • Park City Ridgeline: 10-17" snow with 1.5 - 2.0" SWE
  • Ogden Mountains: 18-28" snow with 2.35 - 2.75" SWE

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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