Avalanche forecast

Flathead Range & Glacier NP

Flathead Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

One last warm day means it is still possible for a rider to trigger a large wet avalanche. Limit the time you spend on or below steep slopes with an unsupportable crust. Choose low-angle terrain free of overhead hazards if you encounter mushy snow where your boards or machine sink below the surface.  There remains a chance you could trigger an avalanche on a deeply buried weak layer on drier, northerly upper-elevation slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Today's warm temperatures continue the warming and wetting of the snowpack that began last weekend. Meltwater has reached and weakened a buried faceted crust, keeping the threat of wet snow avalanches through the day. Natural avalanche activity appears to have diminished but can not be ruled out. Triggering a large avalanche 2-4 feet deep remains possible on steep slopes, especially in locations without a supportable crust. 

    If you find an unsupportable crust on a steep slope, move to lower-angle terrain well away from the runouts of start zones. Mostly cloudy conditions are expected today, but if the sun makes an appearance, limit your time traveling on steep slopes receiving direct sun, especially this afternoon. 

     

    (2/1/2024)

    This is a portion of the crown and flank of a wet slab that failed on January 30 on the popular Skook Face in the side country of WMR. The slab failed on a buried faceted crust.

    Photo: Mark Dundas

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    A buried faceted crust remains a concern on slopes where this layer remains dry. Terrain harboring this problem has diminished during this week's abnormally warm temperatures and may be confined to northerly aspects at upper elevations. Although unlikely, a rider could still trigger a large destructive avalanche several feet deep in locations where the faceted layer is intact and weak. 

    Choose terrain wisely by steering clear of locations where you are most likely to trigger a slide. These include convexities, scoured slopes with a thin snow cover, and rock outcroppings. The snowpack may or may not give you signs, such as collapsing, before an avalanche occurs.

    (2/1/2024)

    A snowpit on a north aspect revealed a 155 cm depth at 6650'. The entire pack was moist and capped by a thin, breakable crust. The blue arrow denotes what we believe to be the deteriorating 12/22 crust.

    Photo: Mark Dundas

Avalanche Discussion

Today should be the last unseasonably warm day before a cooler and snowier pattern arrives this weekend. Unusually warm weather arrived last weekend and has remained through the work week. An example is the Noisy Basin SNOTEL, where readings have remained above freezing since Saturday, January 27, or around 144 hours and counting. On several occasions, temperatures remained in the 40s F overnight! Unprecedented for late January?

Despite another night of above-freezing temperatures at all mid- and upper-elevation weather stations, the chance of a natural wet avalanche decreases slowly. Meltwater reached the December 22 buried faceted crust earlier in the week and caused mayhem. Now, the snowpack has adjusted chiefly to this initial rapid temperature change and influx of water. However, with a mushy snow surface in most locations, triggering a large destructive slide remains possible. Debris from a surface avalanche can trigger a buried weak layer, or this layer can be initiated by the weight of a rider. 

Yesterday (Thursday), I visited the popular sidecountry Skook Face just north of the WMR ski area. I looked closer at a wet slab that failed earlier in the week. Similar to the nearby Hellroaring Peak, much of the open, gladed terrain is not steep enough to slide. However, the skier's right side is plenty steep to slide and has slid in the past, surprising to many side country users. Compare these photos from yesterday and about 10 years ago in the media gallery below.

Although we are still collecting data, a widespread wet avalanche cycle happened in the past week. So far, the most dramatic and widespread slides appear to have occurred in the Swan Range near Condon. We have not visited the Flathead Range to catalog what happened in that extremely steep and rugged terrain. You can check out what has been reported in the avalanches tab on our observations page. 

 

Regions covered