Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Even with a little rain and warm temperatures, the cloudy skies in the morning should really limit any avalanche concerns. As the sun comes out and freezing levels soar, you may see that change a bit in the afternoon. If you see fresh rollerballs, be leery of similar slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    There are several ways you could find wet surface snow capable of producing a small loose wet avalanche on Wednesday. Light rain in the morning could cause any lingering pockets of dry snow to become wet and roll downhill. These spots are pretty limited and likely only exist in sheltered terrain on shaded aspects at mid and upper elevations. The most likely way you’ll see unstable wet snow is if the sun comes out in the afternoon and softens southerly slopes. Either way, the observation you want to make is the same. When you see new roller balls or find wet and sticky snow deeper than your ankle, be leery of similar steep slopes. The variable snow surface and a well-settled upper snowpack should limit the size of any of these slides. However, even a small avalanche can harm you if it pushes you over a cliff or into a creek.

    (2/5/2022)

    Small rollerballs and unstable wet surface snow on a steep sunny aspect near White Pass. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

The recent weather created a wide variety of snow surfaces around the West South zone. Icy slopes, breakable crusts, winds textured surfaces, punchy wet snow, and even pockets of dry settled powder cover the mountains. You’re most likely to encounter icy slopes on wind-exposed features at mid and upper elevations. Wet and punchy snow is often found underneath tree cover where recent overnight freezes have been non-existent. On, Tuesday a thick cloud layer rolled into the region and likely limited any softening of frozen surfaces. Cloudy skies and mild temperatures Tuesday night should prevent any of these surfaces from changing much by Wednesday morning. 

The good news is the snowpack is generally stable and avalanche issues are extremely limited. The little bit of rain and warm temperatures we’re expecting shouldn’t change this much. Cloudy skies in the morning and a cool breeze will work or offset any thawing that might occur. That won’t really change until the sun comes out later in the day. While very strong wind speeds are expected, there just isn’t much snow left to blow around and form wind slabs. So, all in all, we’ll likely be left with many of the same variable and occasionally dangerous snow surfaces mentioned above. 

Even in this period of low danger, you can still find weak snow in the upper snowpack. We’ve been talking about the Late January Crust-Facets for over a week now. NWAC forecasters and numerous additional observations have found this layer near Crystal, Mt Rainier, White Pass, and Mt Adams. However, so far, we have not seen or heard of any avalanches on this layer in the West South zone. It’s possible that could change going forward and it's worth keeping an eye on this layer until we’re sure it’s laid to rest. You may find sugar facets sandwiched between crusts at the base of the recent snow on shaded slopes. Near Mt Rainier and White Pass this is often 12-15” below the surface. Near Mt Adams and Mt St Helens, this is often only a few inches deep. Snowpack tests on this layer have been very inconsistent. On more sunny slopes this facet-crust sandwich is largely absent and the recent snow sits over a very strong and spring-like snowpack. Below this interface, we are not currently tracking any additional layers of concern.

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