The avalanche danger will be increasing through the day to Considerable. Temperatures will increase to forty degrees near 10,000ft. As ambient air temperatures rise and slopes get direct sun, human triggered wet avalanches will be likely on southerly aspects at all elevations and all aspects below 9,000ft. Natural avalanches will be possible. Weak layers below the March snowfall are buried one to three feet deep and have resulted in large avalanches in the last week. These slabs lurk on steep slopes above 8,000ft on the northerly half of the compass.
The persistent weak layer formed during the January/February drought remains one to three feet down in the snowpack. Slab depths may be up to three feet thick. Triggering this weak layer may become easier during the warming trend and could result in an avalanche large enough to bury a person. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty.
Loose wet avalanche conditions will be found on steep slopes throughout the mountains and will increase during the day. As temperatures warm it will become easier to trigger these slides. Carefully assess steep terrain and the runouts of steep terrain. Natural avalanches will be possible so pay close attention to overhead hazards.
Overnight temperatures do not look to drop below freezing except at the highest elevations. Lows will be in the mid-thirties near 9,500ft at 6AM. Highs tomorrow near 10,000ft will be in the mid-forties. Westerly winds will continue at 15-25mph. In the Tetons cloud cover will slightly decrease overnight leading to partly cloudy skies tomorrow. Further south in the trails area skies will be mostly clear with similar temperatures and lighter wind speeds.The snowpack will not have a good freeze leading into tomorrow. In the morning surface snow may be frozen, but the depth of freezing is expected to be shallow. If this is encountered only a brief period of sun and warm temperatures will be needed to cause the snowpack to lose cohesion. On northerly aspects near 9,500ft, free water moving down through the snowpack is reaching the persistent weak layer which can cause it to become weaker and easier to trigger. The slab is up to three feet thick and if triggered could result in an avalanche large enough to bury a person. Human triggered persistent slabs will be possible tomorrow. Loose wet avalanches will also be possible as the temperatures climb and the sun affects the snow. The avalanche danger will increase as the day goes on.In the Tetons, Southwest Trails and Togwotee Pass areas, the danger will trend to Moderate above 8,000ft. Below 8,000ft avalanches will be unlikely and the danger will be Low.
