Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Temperatures are forecasted to be a bit cooler on Sunday, with the potential for some morning cloud cover and maybe even a very light rain or snow shower. But afternoon sunshine is possible, and you may trigger wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. If you are sinking deeply into wet, heavy snow, it might be time to move to lower-angle or shadier terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures are forecasted to cool on Sunday, with the potential for some very light rain and snow showers in the morning and partial clearing in the afternoon. Wet loose avalanche hazard will depend on how the weather plays out tomorrow. Expect a balancing act between the potential for strong ridgeline winds and clouds keeping the surfaces cool and sunshine and warm air softening and melting snow surfaces. Elevations near treeline may be most susceptible to warming and triggering wet loose avalanches. 

    Windy conditions have created crusts, dense slabs, and scoured slopes in many locations. These stiffer surfaces may take more time to soften and develop wet loose avalanche conditions. There is significant variability throughout the terrain, so take time to observe the snow surfaces. If you see pinwheels or rollerballs, snow feels wet and heavy, or test slopes show the propensity for wet snow to move downhill, you might be able to trigger a wet loose avalanche. Steep rocks and cliffs in the sun are prime locations for wet loose avalanches to start, be aware of overhead hazards and terrain traps that can increase the consequences of being caught in even a small avalanche.

    In some locations, weak faceted snow exists above the Late January Crust. There is uncertainty on how this layer will react to warming temperatures. But it is possible that a wet loose avalanche could trigger a deeper and surprisingly large slab avalanche. 

    (2/6/2022)

    If you find wet, sticky snow like this while you are traveling, you may be able to trigger a wet loose avalanche in steep terrain.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Very warm temperatures were true to the forecast on Saturday, with many weather stations recording temperatures in the mid to high 40's. While the low-lying valleys were cooler, it wasn't by much, and temperatures in the mid to high 30's were common. While ambient temperatures will likely not cool much overnight, clear skies may help to refreeze wet snow surfaces.From Jan 30- Feb 2, storms deposited 10-16 inches of snow over various surfaces, including weak faceted snow and strong melt-freeze crusts. Strong ridgeline winds have redistributed much of that new snow into dense slabs, scoured west aspects, and created stiff wind-board surfaces. We enjoyed better travel conditions for a few days, but unfortunately, the warm temperatures have formed melt-freeze crusts on the snow surface. As a result, travel conditions are likely a challenging combination of thick icy crusts, breakable crusts, or heavy wet snow. 

On sheltered areas on north and east aspects, facets over a crust have been observed at mid-elevations beneath the storm snow from 1/30 - 2/1. This layer seems inconsistent in distribution, and stability tests have shown variable results. There is uncertainty about the distribution and extent of this layer, but it is only 1-2ft deep, so you can dig down to identify these layers quickly as you move through the terrain. If you find weak, sugary snow over firm melt-freeze crust under a cohesive slab, you could trigger surprising avalanches on steep slopes. 

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