Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Above 8,000 feet the avalanche danger is Considerable. Human triggered avalanches are possible...2-6 inches of snow graced our advisory area yesterday afternoon with gusty winds out of the South and now North upwards of 30 mph. This new snow and variable winds have likely formed 2-12 inch plus thick, wind slabs on top of a variety of crust/facet combinations that have possibly failed naturally already on very steep slopes. In wind-sheltered steep terrain, the snow may be sensitive to the weight of a human,  not bonded well, and resting on weak facets and crust combinations.

 Be cautious in and around all steep terrain, and especially terrain that is wind-loaded. Look for clues of snow drifting like etching, drifting, or pillows in leeward terrain (North and South).

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    The little bit of snow that came in yesterday afternoon (2-4" at 6,000 FT), more in the Southern portion of our advisory area, now rests on top of weak crust facet combinations, and slick solar crusts. Where this snow has not already failed (30-37 degree slopes), it has a weak structure and you are likely to be able to trigger shallow storm slabs and loose dry snow avalanches or sluffs in wind-sheltered terrain.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    The little bit of new snow that we got out of Valentine's day came in with legitimate frontal winds initially from the South gusting well into the 30 mile an hour range. The wind shifted last night and is now out of the North. 

    Be cautious of wind slabs 2-12 inches thick near ridgelines, cornices, and steep terrain that is wind-loaded. Cracking and whoomphing are indicators of instability and should turn you around to find a safer route...Look for clues on the surface of the snow like etching, drifting, or pillows in leeward terrain (North and South).

    Gusty winds at the Granite weather station.

Avalanche Discussion

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We have been waiting for new snow, and yesterday we got just enough new snow and wind to ramp up the avalanche danger. The new snow is now resting on a variety of crusts on every aspect and elevation. Some crusts have a combination of weak facets and are going to fail. Other crusts below the new snow are slick, like the ones that formed from the Sun, and may not have bonded great yet? The new snow did come in warm and went out cold which we like, and may have bonded well? 

Our snowpack tests yielded good stability in the snowpack below this latest interface.  Afternoon Sunshine will possibly initiate small, natural wet-loose avalanches in steep and rocky terrain that face the Sun.

Be suspect and cautious in and around, and underneath slopes that are steeper than 30 degrees as you could get a little snow to start moving which could become a lot of snow moving really quickly.

 

*** Check out our Observations Page to see what others are seeing...We are always looking for more Information from snowmobilers and skiers on snow and weather conditions. These observations help our forecasts and they help other users in and outside of the community. It can be quick with or without a photo…Use the Observations link at the top of the page to submit your observations. 

***Motorized users, please be aware that there are some areas of the Payette National Forest that are closed to motorized use, some of these closures are to protect wildlife and some are to protect other recreators.  Check out the Winter Travel Map below for details

https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd891395.pdf