Southeast Mountains

Take heed: there have been numerous full burials and close calls in the last few days in neighboring forecast zones (Example A, B, C), and avalanche accidents tend to come in clusters.  Warming, windloading, and a buried weak layer have created a complex and dangerous menu of avalanche problems today.  If you want a low-stress day of enjoying the powder, ride in simpler terrain with slope angles less than 30 degrees.  Avalanche hazards are most acute in wind drifted terrain, but also exist in wind-sheltered terrain around the compass.  

Persistent slabs, wind slabs, wet avalanches.  It's a complex snowpack today with dangerous conditions.  We all want a bomber spring snowpack to develop in March, but we clearly aren't there.   Let's start with some key points explaining the big picture and bottom line:  It's a good day to leave the house with a conservative mindset.  

• There have been 3 full avalanche burials and 1 partial burial in our neighboring forecast zones since Wednesday (Example A, B, C).  People are clearly getting surprised, and avalanche accidents tend to come in clusters.
• We have a well-developed weak layer that formed from a near-record dryspell. It is now several feet deep and variable in distribution and stability (See this throwback video to when this layer first got buried).  
• CBMR has tallied 25" and Irwin has tallied 42" in the past week. That's a decent amount of stress on the snowpack.
• Winds increased later in the storm and as the storm exited, with strong gusts over the past few days and lots of snow transport.  That's more stress on the snowpack.
• We haven't seen widespread avalanche activity, but rather, a steady string of both human and naturally triggered slides.  Conditions aren't so blatantly dangerous that it is easy to be lured into the wrong type of terrain.
• Today is the first day since last week's storm that temperatures will rise close to or above freezing.  Surface melt will add another layer of complexity.

A few nuances of today's conditions.   The persistent slab problem is what has been catching people off guard, and we're listing it as the primary avalanche concern even though it isn't as common as our wind slab or loose wet concerns.  In wind-sheltered terrain, we're finding that the problem is fairly stubborn where the snowpack is deeper (in the Northwest Mountains), and that the widespread bed surfaces from the late February cycle have remained fairly quiet.  In the Southeast Mountains, the persistent slab problem is more reactive on slopes that have remained intact. However, the distribution of the problem is fairly isolated below treeline due to extensive avalanche activity from late February.  Thus, if you find a steep slope facing the north half of the compass that didn't avalanche in recent weeks, don't trust it.   As you gain elevation and into more windloaded terrain, the danger increases.   You'll encounter larger and more widespread wind slabs, and a scarier threat from persistent slabs.  Near and above treeline slopes have seen the most stress in recent days, slabs are larger, and previous avalanche activity was less widespread and impossible to read, with more potential for repeat offenders.  That makes for a variable and dangerous setup that is hard to assess on a slope by slope basis.  Check out these three examples of scary persistent slabs from Scarp Ridge, Park Cone, from the Aspen Zone.    The wet loose problem will be the smallest and easiest problem to manage today. If you can beat the heat and stay ahead of the moistening snow, wind-sheltered southerly aspects are offering the safest riding this morning.  On those southerly aspects, plan to exit steep, consequential terrain once the snow surface starts to get damp and sticky.