Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heavy snow and strong winds will maintain dangerous avalanche conditions Thursday.  Shifting winds will redistribute storm snow onto different aspects.  Let the storm play out and stick to simpler and less consequential terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The good news is that this next round of winter will feature colder temperatures and lower density snow.  The bad news is this storm is expected to come in Mt Hood style, so fast and furious, and without allowing enough time for storm snow instabilities from Wednesday to settle out.  Teasing out which slopes at upper elevations harbor deeper drifts will become difficult as strong SE winds redistribute recent snow onto different aspects and cross-load slopes.  Snowfall rates will be heavy enough at times that you may encounter natural storm slab avalanches throughout the day. 

    All of this leads to a day where you're going to want to enjoy the new snow safely by choosing simpler and less consequential terrain.  Slab avalanches may break 1-2' down in new storm snow or more deeply in wind-loaded terrain or recently buried weaker layers. 

    We don't have any recent information from the upper mountain during this storm cycle.  With poor visibility expected, make sure you understand the overhead hazard and avoid traveling on or below terrain capable of producing large avalanches. 

    (12/8/2023)

    Hand pits are a great way to look at the recent storm snow. Look for strong over weak layers and places it fails easily. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Wednesday became a full-on storm day with snowfall rates ramping up quickly during the afternoon hours; 10" of snow fell at the Mt Hood Meadows area in just 5 hrs ending at 5 pm Wednesday as westerly winds continued to tear out of the WSW at 30mph gust 60 @ the 6500' station.  At lower elevations, wet snow had a difficult time accumulating for the first half of the day as temperatures hovered near or just above freezing.   

While avalanches are more likely to fail within the new snow, there are a few layers in the upper snowpack worth tracking: 

-1/16 Interface: This new interface is an interesting one. A very slick ice crust formed on much of Mt Hood this past week above 5000ft and extends to at least 8500ft (the top of our forecast area). That could make it very difficult for the new snow to stick. Lower in the terrain, soft unconsolidated snow lingered. Down there, you might find weak facets or surface hoar at this interface, allowing avalanches to trigger very easily and even remotely. 

-Early January Facet/Crust Layer: This potential weak layer is deep (6-8ft)! While we haven’t seen avalanches on it recently, deep persistent slabs have occurred to the north (West South Zone) and south (Central Oregon Avalanche Center). Will this new load wake it up? Hard to say. These much bigger and deeper slides would most likely occur on NW-N-E aspects above 5500ft where significant snow existed before the New Year.

Regions covered