Avalanche forecast

Provo

Issued Jan 16, 2024valid to Jan 17, 2024Utah Avalanche Center

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Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A HIGH DANGER exists on many slopes.

Today has avalanche accident written all over it.

Large avalanches may be triggered in many areas. Travel in or underneath avalanche terrain is not recommended. Remember that avalanches can be triggered at a distance or from the flats well below a slope.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Very Likely
Size
3
These are very dangerous avalanche accident conditions.

The "peak" of the instability was on Sunday. Avalanches are not as hair-trigger. Cracking and collapsing is not as constant and continuous as it has been.

And yet, here we are on a blue-bird day with good skiing and riding conditions with the best coverage of the year. It will be easy to convince yourself that conditions are much improved and safe enough. This is why we have issued a press release, issued a Special Avalanche Bulletin and why I am writing to you now that these are the days of accidents.

Here's what I know:

Although most avalanches have been on north to southeast facing aspects, all aspects are suspect.

Large destructive avalanches have occurred even in the low elevation bands.

These soft and hard slab avalanches may be more stubborn but they can still be triggered at a distance.

If you are caught in one of these monsters, it will probably be unsurvivable.
Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
3
Continued winds have drifted the snow into soft and hard slabs on predominantly north to east to south facing slopes. Terrain channeling and very strong wind speeds, however, will have deposited these slabs onto many aspects and well down the slope. Any wind slab may step down into our PWL layers, making a much more dangerous avalanche.

Special Avalanche Bulletin

A Special Avalanche Bulletin is in effect from 6am MST this morning to 6am MST Wednesday for all the mountains of northern, central and southern Utah, to include southeastern Idaho and the Bear River Range.

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on many slopes of all elevations. Avalanche accidents often occur under these conditions. Please stay off of and out from underneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees

Recent Activity

Today will be excellent viewing of what will be seen as a war zone of avalanches from Sunday. Historic avalanches occurred in the Ogden and SL mountains and I am sure we will hear of many in the Provo mountains today. Some of these avalanches further north are 4-8' deep and 3000' wide. Decent debris piles with timber were noted even in low elevations.

Since Friday, we have heard about two full avalanche burials (Main Porter, American Fork) with rumors of a third; all recovered by partners or bystanders. We've also heard of many more skiers and riders being caught and carried; again with a good outcome. Tragically, a skier was killed in an avalanche in Wyoming Sunday (Details).

Snow and Weather

Skies are clear.

Mountain temperatures are in the single digits to low teens. Winds are from the west northwest, blowing 15-20mph. Along the highest elevations, anemometers are humming 45mph with gusts to 55.

Winds from the northwest continued to punish the mountains yesterday at all elevations. The 11,000' level gusts crested 100mph many times.

photo: Doug Wewer

Storm totals: (snow/snow-water-equivalent)

LCC: 85"/6.83" SWE
BCC: 66"/5.45" SWE
PC: 50-60"/4.4-5.42" SWE
Ogden: 50-70"/4.5-5.5" SWE
Provo: 60"/5.69" SWE

For today, we'll have mostly clear skies with high cirrus moving in overhead, portending the next storm. Temps will rise to the upper teens to low 20s. Winds will blow from the west northwest, then from the west southwest. A wet but warmer storm arrives tonight through tomorrow that should offer 6-12" of snow. Initial rain/snow line looks to be around 6500-7000'. Another quick break Friday before another storm lines up for Saturday through early week. Gusty winds persist all the while.

With this last storm, we are back on track - most areas are at or above "median" snow-water for the year.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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