Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Rain and heavy wet snow overnight and into this morning will add additional weight and stress to the weak layers in our snowpack.  Large avalanches are expected to occur today and could be 2 to 6+ feet deep.  These avalanches could be triggered from low angle areas above, below, or from off to the side of steeper avalanche terrain.   Dangerous avalanche conditions will exist with conservative terrain choices and wide safety margins required if traveling in the backcountry today.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Rain and heavy wet snow have loaded the weak layers in our snowpack.  .6 to 1.30'' of snow water equivalent (SWE) overnight is a sizable load and will add weight and stress to multiple weak layers.  The Jan 2 persistent weak layer-made up of buried surface hoar, faceted snow, and/or a crust/facet combo-has been reactive in multiple avalanche cycles over the past 2 weeks.  Avalanches that occur today could step down to weak faceted snow located much deeper in the snowpack around the Dec 19 rain crust or on the depth hoar at the ground.  Naturally or human triggered avalanches could occur today resulting in large and destructive avalanches 2 to 6+ feet deep.

    Recent avalanches, long shooting cracks, snowpack collapse, or whumpfing sounds are indications of unstable persistent slabs in the immediate area. These avalanches could be remotely triggered from low angle terrain above, below, or off to the side of a steeper slope. The only effective way to manage a persistent slab avalanche problem is avoidance.  If recreating in the backcountry today, carefully choose terrain that is well under 30 degrees in steepness and not connected to any steeper terrain nearby.

    (1/14/2024)

    Remotely triggered avalanche from group on ridgeline, Jan 14.  Shallenberger Ridge, Donner Summit area.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Gale force SW winds combined with new snow will form wind slabs in exposed terrain.  These wind slabs will be limited to where new snow has accumulated and can be wind transported at the higher elevations.  

    Blowing snow, cornices, wind drifts, and snow surface texture are all clues to the location of potentially unstable wind slabs. Slopes near ridgetop areas, especially below cornice features are suspect today.

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