Avalanche forecast

Provo

Issued Jan 8, 2024valid to Jan 9, 2024Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Most terrain has a MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are possible. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully today.

If you're traveling into the wind zone, pay close attention to shooting cracks or any audible collapsing. Where there is not a cohesive slab, you will be able to trigger longer running loose snow sluffs in steep terrain.

Avalanche problems

Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
You may find sensitive soft slabs of wind drifted snow on a variety of aspects and primarily (but not exclusively) in the upper elevations. Winds blew moderate to strong from the southwest prior to frontal passage Saturday night and then shifted to the northwest yesterday. They have been blowing in the moderate category from this direction ever since with more than enough snow to transport into cohesive slabs. Avoid these rounded rippled whales of wind blown snow. Shooting cracks are a tell-tale sign of instability. ⚠️ They may also break out above you on a slope.
Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
The December drought layer PWL of weak sugary facets is now capped by 6-18" of low density snow. In most areas, this new snow has yet to become enough of a cohesive slab to result in widespread avalanches. Instead, this low density snow has avalanched as dry loose new snow avalanches, often gouging into the weak sugar below. With tomorrow's wind and storms lined up, that time will be very soon. Currently, I have rated the danger as MODERATE...human triggered avalanches are possible.

(Many solar aspect have little to no snow at the lower elevations due to the dry winter)

TAKE NOTE that the Ogden mountains received more snow and more wind and the danger spiked to HIGH yesterday with slab avalanches triggered in all the elevation bands (as low as 5700') on many aspects. This to me serves as the cautionary tale for the central and southern Wasatch.

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Recent Activity

We only heard that a snowcat triggered a shallow soft slab on a steep shady aspect below 8000'. I believe this to be more of an anomaly and yet there is very weak snow leftover from December's drought just waiting for enough snow and/or wind to be active. Guide and educator Erik Fullmer spotted some natural loose dry sluffs in the new snow high in the UFO Bowls near Aspen Grove.

Recent observations from Provo -

Snow and Weather

Skies are partly cloudy.

Winds are generally light from the north-northwest, blowing 10-15mph with gusts to 25. Along the highest elevations overnight, the winds averaged 25-30mph with gusts to 45, but they've lost a bit of steam in the last couple hours. Mountain temperatures are in the single digits to mid-teens.

Snow report: the Provo mountains picked up 5-12" (0.62"SWE) of new snow with the most reported at Sundance resort.

For today, we'll have partly cloudy skies, light winds from the northwest, and temps in the single digits. Increasing clouds tonight.

For tomorrow and through the end of time, I'll only remind you, Be careful what you wish for. We have a very active weather pattern on deck with a series of storms starting tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures warm to the upper teens to low 20s tomorrow as the westerly winds (from the west) amp up and become strong Tuesday afternoon. Light snowfall should begin midday. By the end of the weekend, we'll be measuring the snowfall in terms of feet, not inches.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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