Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Happy New Year! New snow has improved conditions!

Slab avalanches are still possible on steep, unsupported slopes at upper elevations. Evaluate the bond of wind-drifted layers as you climb up into alpine terrain. Despite the new snow, thin snowpacks and early season hazards like open water, creek holes, rocks, and stumps are still nearly everywhere you look.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    At upper elevations you could still find a slab avalanche in wind-loaded terrain. Unfortunately, wind slabs might be difficult to identify. The clues you are looking for are likely covered by a softer, lighter layer of snow that fell later in the storm when winds were light and temperatures colder. On-the-fly tests like hand pits and even just poking around with the handle of a ski pole can help you identify where the snow is more or less wind-drifted. You are most likely to trigger a slab on a steep unsupported slope, convex rollover, or around cliff bands.

    (2/14/2023) 

    Very steep, unsupported terrain features are where you could trigger a slab avalanche on Monday. 

    Photo: Jere Burrell - Guided Exposure

Avalanche Discussion

Rollerballs and a few small wet avalanches were observed today. More sun and slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for Monday, so keep an eye on steep overhead terrain that is seeing direct sunshine. Increasing clouds and south winds should limit wet avalanche activity in the afternoon. In addition to small wet loose, a few dry loose avalanches were observed on very steep northerly aspects of Shuksan Arm.

Observers around the Baker BC found anywhere from 4-12” of dry new snow at mid-elevations. No signs of wind-affected snow were reported, likely due to the fact the winds began to back off before rain switched to snow at mid-elevations. The new snow was found to be right-side-up and well-bonded to the old wet surface. The moist crust below the new snow was reported to minimize the dust-on-crust experience. Expect crusty surfaces on southerly aspects on Monday.

Heather Meadows picked up a total of 1.35” of precipitation from the latest storm. Most other weather stations in West North picked up about half that amount. The Martin Ridge Snotel above Baker Lake had 1.0" of precipitation from the last storm which indicates the south side of Mt Baker/Schreibers also saw significant snowfall up high. 

New snow amounts vary greatly by elevation. Look for up to 1.5’ at the highest elevations with more in wind-drifted areas. A snow pit at 5500’ showed 5.5’ of snowpack above the ground. Below the new snow, all layers were well bonded and consisted of moist crusts, melt forms, or rounded grains. 

You might find a drier, more layered snowpack at upper elevations and also farther east in the zone (Cascade Pass, Ruby Mt, etc), that likely saw less rain and slightly cooler temperatures. If traveling up in the alpine or near the Cascade Crest, prepare to make your own observations and adjust your plan as necessary.

Regions covered