Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Regions
Cariboos.
Confidence
Poor - Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
No precipitation is forecast for sunday, monday or tuesday. Mostly broken cloud is expected with moderate north/northwest winds. Temperatures are uncertain throughout the period. Some models indicate freezing levels remaining at or near surface while others claim a spike to 3000m on monday.Stay tuned for more info.
Avalanche Summary
Widespread size 2 natural activity reported from the region on wednesday. No new observations have been reported. Any observations from the field are welcome. Please send to [email protected]
Snowpack Summary
Expect to find around 200cm of snow near treeline. In the alpine there's either more or less depending on local wind patterns. I suspect last weekend's storm snow is settling into place and gaining strength. The snow and wind that occurred over the last few days will have created pockets of touchy windslab that will be lingering on lee and cross-loaded features at treeline and in the alpine. Forecast northerly winds may stiffen the current wind slab and/or redistribute surface snow creating new ones. A rain crust that developed on November 27th is about 20-35 cms below the surface (elevation dependant). It`s about 2 cms thick at 1700m and is reportedly 'bullet-proof' closer to valley bottom. Some reactivity has been observed on this layer below treeline.Closer to the ground is the early November surface hoar; somewhere around 50 cm above ground or 150 cm below the surface. It may be difficult to trigger this layer but has a sudden planar characteristic. I also suspect a lingering rain crust down there. Finally, 2 cms of light snow fell on November 2nd burying a layer of surface hoar. It's not an issue at this point, but it's something to keep on your radarIt's still November (just barely), so we only have a teenage snowpack at best: variable, unpredictable, maybe moody. I suggest giving the snowpack a few days to reveal its secrets.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.