Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Rain will destabilize the upper snowpack, resulting in wet avalanche activity on Monday. Dangerous conditions are expected, with natural slides possible on steep slopes. Near Paradise, it could become very dangerous if continued rain produces widespread large avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Wet avalanches are expected throughout the West South, but may be more common in the northern half of the zone. In areas with minimal rain, you'll likely find mostly wet loose slides. Look for these to start at a point, such as snow shedding from trees, rocks, or corniced ridgelines. They will then fan out and potentially grow large as they move downhill. They could even trigger slabs as they descend.

    Which brings us to the less likely, but more dangerous scenario. In locations such as Mount Rainier National Park, more significant rain is expected. So you could see larger, more dangerous wet slab avalanches.  

    Regardless of which wet problem you're dealing with, they'll be more likely on steep slopes. So give these areas a wide berth. If it's raining hard or you see slab avalanches occurring, avoid all avalanche terrain.

    (1/31/2026)

    A mix of wet loose and wet slab avalanches from a rain on snow event earlier this season. Similar activity is expected throughout the zone on Monday.

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

After last week produced 5-7 feet of new snow around the West South, we'll start this workweek with rising temperatures and a shot of rain. Freezing levels are expected to be well above our forecast elevation bands, so all that nice storm snow will start getting wet. 

We're not expecting overly impressive water numbers for the majority of the zone, but Paradise is forecast to get roughly 1.00" of (mostly) rain through Monday night. You may find more natural avalanche activity and the potential for HIGH avalanche danger in this area. 

There are two interfaces in the upper snowpack to watch as we move into our upcoming warm week. First is the 3/12 interface. This formed during the last warmup and is generally 3-4 feet below the surface. It is suspected to have been the culprit in several reported avalanches. Another foot or two below the 3/12, you'll find the 3/8 crust. Water is unlikely to reach this crust during the first rain event, but it could become a factor later in the week as warm weather and additional rain affect the zone.

Regions covered