Hazard today remains at Considerable after another night of snow showers and strong winds. With a significant amount of snowfall throughout the week paired with strong winds, expect wind-transported snow to build on primarily northwesterly aspects, potentially forming reactive wind and storm slabs. Be wary of large, open, and connected slopes. These slabs could be sensitive to human triggering, especially in areas near ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features. Dangerous avalanche conditions are possible; careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision-making are essential. With a deep snowpack in place, be aware of snow immersion hazards. It’s a good day to ski, ride, or sled with a partner.
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With predominantly E and SE winds, wind slab formation is expected to be most pronounced on northwesterly aspects. However, due to the way wind moves through the mountainous terrain of Douglas Island, be on the lookout for wind slab formation on a variety of aspects.
With intermittent snow showers, anticipate the storm slab to lack consistency and be quite variable depending on terrain features, aspect, and elevation. As snowfall tapers off and the snowpack has more time to heal, slabs may become more stubborn. There are quite a few different layers within the new snow.
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 10 AM this morning (3/22). Powder Patch at Eaglecrest reports approximately 4 inches of new snow overnight. Winds increased overnight, with the Eaglecrest FAA station recording gusts up to 54 mph. Blowing snow along ridgetops was observed yesterday and intensified into the evening. Natural avalanches were detected on the mainland via CBJ radar.
Periods of snow showers and gusty winds will continue across the region today, with the potential for some sun this afternoon. There remains uncertainty in the weather forecast regarding the timing, duration, and accumulation associated with these complex bands of precipitation. After a week of variable snow showers, the storm slab we are dealing with is expected to lack consistency and may be quite variable depending on terrain features, aspect, and elevation. If the sun comes out today, be mindful of solar radiation effects—such as sun crusts and wet loose activity—on southerly and westerly aspects.
Avalanche hazard is expected to trend gradually downward today as winds and precipitation taper off and wind direction shifts to the north, signaling the beginning of a regime change. Another weaker pulse of the storm is expected on Monday, followed by a transition to high pressure with clearer, colder, and windier conditions. Winds are forecast to peak on Wednesday.
Solar effects will start to be a factor as we transition into high pressure next week in sun exposed areas.
Wind slabs are anticipated to remain the primary concern throughout the week.
