Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A short but intense storm will impact the area today. Heavy snowfall and strong winds will make large natural avalanches failing 1 to 2' deep in new and windblown snow likely. Avalanche danger will rise quickly as snow accumulates, and avalanche terrain should be approached with caution.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for heavy snowfall and strong winds in the Seward/Lost Lake zone. This advisory is in effect until 7 pm this evening.

We’re excited to announce the annual Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day on Saturday, March 14! We will be up in the Turnagain Pass motorized lot from noon until 4 pm, along with AMDS, Anchorage Yamaha and Polaris, Anchorage Nordic Ski Patrol, Alaska Search and Rescue Dogs, and the Alaska Avalanche School. Stop by to demo a snowmachine, run through some avalanche rescue drills, or just grab a free burger or hot dog and chat with CNFAC forecasters about current avalanche conditions.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    This storm will be the biggest loading event the snowpack has experienced in over a month. It will add stress to two different buried weak layers, increasing the likelihood of larger avalanches. This includes the layer of faceted snow that formed in December and is now buried around 2 to 6' deep, as well as the faceted snow that formed below a rain crust from mid-February, and will be 1 to 2' deep by this afternoon.

    The odds of seeing something fail deeper in the snowpack are low, but today's storm will nudge buried weak layers closer to their breaking point. A smaller avalanche failing within new and windblown snow could step down and trigger something much larger failing on one of these deeper weak layers.

    This type of problem is difficult to assess and will remain a challenge after the storm passes. With the intense precipitation rates expected today, we are avoiding traveling on or below any avalanche terrain. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    After several weeks of high pressure, we are finally going to see a significant storm today. The snow is just starting to fall this morning, and we could see 6 to 10" in the Seward/Lost Lake area by this afternoon. Winds are already ramping up, and we will likely see speeds averaging 40 to 50 mph through the day. 

    This storm will be burying a mix of crusts and facets, neither of which is expected to bond well to the new snow. Natural avalanches will be likely, and these could be up to 1 to 2' deep as the snow begins to pile up and the wind continues to increase. It's looking like we are finally getting the reset we have been looking for, and it will take some restraint to approach avalanche terrain with a cautious mindset as the snowpack adjusts. 

    (3/6/2026)

    Predicted snowfall totals from 3 am Friday through 3 am Saturday. Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage.

    Photo: NWS-Anchorage

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