East Slopes Central

If you're punching deeply through wet, sloppy snow, consider finding shadier slopes to recreate on. Higher up, encountering a very small slab of wind-deposited snow isn't off the table, so look for signs of wind transport, such as rippled, uneven snow surfaces that are softer and fresher than old surfaces. If you plan to travel to more obscure places in the zone, keep bigger slab avalanches running on weak layers below on the brain.

Thursday morning might start either cloudy or sunny, but as the day progresses, expect mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures and freezing levels should be chilly and lower in the morning, but they will jump up more quickly if it starts out sunny.

The zone didn't see enough precipitation from the last storm for there to be enough new wet loose hazard to list it as a problem. Refrozen surface crusts will need to break down first before anything deeper could release. That said, with the forecasted weather, don't be surprised if you see rollerballs and pinwheels that indicate warming and destabilizing. Plus, the snowpack still holds onto moisture within, which creates some uncertainty. NWAC Forecasters traveling on Dirtyface Mountain on Thursday found moist snow all the way down to the January Drought Layer (JDL) buried 26in/65cm. By and large, we think wet snow problems are played out after such an extended period of warm weather, but it won't hurt to keep these nuggets of information in the back of your brain as you travel around. Luckily, managing small wet snow avalanches is predictable and straightforward. 

It's probable that at upper elevations, you could knock off a "wind skin" in complex and exposed terrain. This size of avalanche isn't particularly dangerous, but keeping an eye out for them will help you avoid being caught off guard. Slipping and falling from triggering one could result in being carried over hazards such as rocks and cliffs. Shooting cracks and recent slab avalanches in downwind terrain indicate that these tiny slabs exist.

After all this warmth and rain, weak layers such as the JDL are probably no longer a significant issue for avalanches. But bear in mind that the nearby East North zone still harbors a more evident persistent slab problem. On Sunday, NWAC Forecasters in that zone observed recent slab avalanches up to D3 in size that slid on the JDL. The avalanche that resulted in a fatality on February 28th ran on the JDL as well. Snowpack structure doesn't necessarily abide by our human-made forecast zone boundary lines, so be a little more suspicious of it further north or in far-out places in East Central. This layering could also be more obvious above the old rain/snow line, which is approximately 6600-7000 ft, but we lack on-the-ground data at these elevations. Factor in this uncertainty into your travel decisions. Here are three things you can do to reduce your risk:

1. Dig down into the snowpack to investigate the distribution of weak layers. Harder snow over softer, sugary snow is a red flag.
2. Choose more simple terrain. Think planar, short, and terrain trap free.
3. You're unlikely to see cracking or collapsing prior to dropping in. When in doubt, avoid slopes over 30 degrees.

Submit an observation to help NWAC Forecasters reduce uncertainty. It can be short, simple, and even anonymous.