Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE by this afternoon. 6-12" of new snow (Friday PM-Saturday PM) and increasing SW winds will build sensitive wind slabs. Triggering wind slabs 8-16" thick will become likely by this afternoon. Wind slabs will be most reactive above 7000' on N, NE, E-facing slopes. Pay attention to signs like shooting cracks from your skis, board, or sled.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    4-6" of snow fell over the past 24 hours, add this to the upper 6" of the snowpack that was very soft and light yesterday, that leaves ample snow available for transport. Today, another 4-8" of snow is forecasted with increasing SW winds. Wind speeds are forecasted to be gusting 20-30 MPH, with areas along West Mountain likely seeing stronger winds. You can expect to find wind slabs 8-16" thick above 7000' today. As the storm progresses throughout the day, wind slabs will become thicker and more sensitive to triggering. Wind slabs will be most prevalent on upper elevation slopes facing N, NE, and E. Local terrain features can alter the prevailing wind direction and cross load snow onto slopes across varying aspects. Pay attention to pillows, dunes, or drifts indicating active wind loading. Look for clues like shooting cracks within the new snow or a change from soft to "slabby".

Avalanche Discussion

New snow is falling atop very soft and light snow from Friday. In terrain that is sheltered from the wind, especially below 7000', soft storm slabs could be building throughout the day. There remains come uncertainty around timing of the storm system today (i.e. how much snow and wind will impact the region during daylight hours). Pay attention to the new snow as it stacks up. Quick observations with your hands or poles can give you a sense of how the new snow is bonding and if a slab is forming. If the storm arrives earlier than forecasted (larger storm totals and stronger wind during the day), then it's time to manage terrain more conservatively and pay attention to slope angles steeper than 30 degrees. Make sure you're paying close attention to changing conditions as the avalanche danger will be on the rise throughout the day. 

If you plan to be out in the mountains Saturday night into Sunday morning, avalanche conditions will become increasingly dangerous. The bulk of the storm arrives tonight and continues into Sunday. Heavy snowfall, strong winds, and rising temperatures will drive rising avalanche danger and widespread instability. Being out in the dark would add another layer of risk to already risky situation. I would plan to avoid all avalanche terrain by late Saturday evening as the storm intensifies.

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