Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wet loose avalanches will be likely again today. Wet slides will be most likely above 7000', on any slope that is tilted toward the sun. This warm up may push some large cornices past their tipping point today. Avoid being on or underneath steep, solar-facing slopes during the warmest parts of the day.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Today is day #4 of a significant spring warm up. Temperatures have been trending warmer everyday, with some locations above 7000' not receiving a solid refreeze overnight. A lot of steep, south-facing rocks and cliffs have likely already shed loose snow. With the lack of a refreeze at upper elevations, wet loose avalanches could be possible earlier in the day at upper elevations and on aspects that face away from the sun. Pay attention to what happened last night, which terrain or which aspects froze and which didn't?

    Avoid being on or underneath steep slopes during peak warm up. Be on the lookout for punchy or mushy snow, where you're sinking in past your ankles. If you're seeing pinwheels or rollerballs tumbling off rocks, then it's time to find another aspect.  

    (3/1/2025)

    Shaw Twin weather station (7130'), showing an overnight low temperature of 34F, before climbing again this morning.

    Photo: Kevin Studley

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Cornices are heating up and have been peeling off during this warm spell. A recent observation highlighted a cornice fall on Thursday, at 8600' on a north aspect. Cornice failures are most likely above 7500' on north and east-facing aspects. Give a wide berth around large, overhanging cornices during the warmest parts of the day. Avoid being directly underneath some of these monsters during peak heat, as they could likely trigger a loose avalanche while tumbling down the slope. 

    (2/27/2025) Large cornice break at 8600’ on a north aspect. Photo: Brian Peters

Avalanche Discussion

Several days into this spring-like, melt-freeze cycle, conditions may seem unchanged, but the snow is always changing. Elevations below 7000' have been receiving solid nightly refreezes and will be locked up solid this morning. Wet loose avalanches on lower elevations will likely be a player during the afternoon hours. With minimal to no refreeze overnight, elevations above 7000' should be your biggest concern for wet loose avalanches today. I would expect some wet slides to work their way around the compass to some polar aspects today. Above 7000', is where you're also going to need to be heads up with cornice failures as well. Pay attention to clues from the snow and how it's reacting to daytime warming. If you're seeing indications of snow losing strength due to heating, it's time to find another cooler, shaded aspect to be on.

Welcome to the first day of March, the first day of meterological spring (not to be confused with astronomical spring). February was quite a month for the West Central mountains. The Secesh SNOTEL site (6500'), saw 74" of snow @ 11.4" SWE during the month. Compare that with 34" @ 4.3" SWE for the month of January, that's double the snowfall and triple the water equivalent. There was accumulating snowfall on 20 out of 28 days during the month. We saw two separate atmospheric rivers deliver 3/4 of the monthly SWE. Each event brought rising rain/snow levels between 6-7000'. Druing the middle of the month, an arctic air mass sent temperatures plummeting well below 0F. Moderate avalanche danger was issued 6 days, Considerable 5 days, High 2 days, Low 0 days, and two avalanche warnings were issued during the month. February HS peaked around 02/24 and there's been 6-8" of snow settlement since then.