Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You could trigger a wind slab avalanche on all aspects above the treeline, especially above 10,000 feet, where dry snow is available for transport. The likelihood of triggering a wet loose avalanche is decreasing, though keep on eye out for roller balls and warming snow on all south-facing aspects. Avoid wind-loaded snow and get out of steep terrain before the heat of the day to reduce your exposure to avalanche hazard.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Southwest winds will blow in the strong to extreme range for this forecast period. With this, wind slab avalanches are possible on any aspect above the treeline. Following two consecutive days of freezing levels climbing to 9,000+ feet, virtually no snow remains available for wind transport below and near the treeline. However, above 10,000 feet, dry snow remains and powerful wind today will transport snow onto leeward terrain, most commonly north, northeast, and east aspects. Assess slopes for wind loading by looking for shooting cracks and lens-shaped snow surfaces. Feel for firm slabs of textured snow and listen for hollow, drum-like sounds. Being vigilant for these indicators before you are in steep, consequential terrain will increase your margin of safety and give you clues to what's going on higher in the mountains. 

    (3/6/2025)

    Clear skies above treeline on Mount Shasta. Northerly wind is blowing snow downslope into Avalanch Gulch

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet loose avalanche will be less likely today as the freezing level is 2,000 feet lower than yesterday and powerful southwest wind helps to keep snow surfaces cool. In areas protected from the wind, thin cloud cover may produce a greenhousing effect that may allow for increased warming of the snow. You could find this problem on all south-facing aspects, though will be most common below and near the treeline. These avalanches would be small, but they could carry you into a terrain trap. Wet loose instability will rise through the day, reaching its peak in the late afternoon, when your odds of triggering a wet loose avalanche are highest. Indicators of risings instability include roller balls and natural avalanches. Be especially suspect near steep areas with rocks that can transmit more heat from the sun into the snowpack. To avoid this issue, start early and exit avalanche terrain before the heat of the day.

    (3/7/2025)

    A very small skier triggered wet loose avalanche on a southerly aspect near 7,500 feet

    Photo: Cory Beattie

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, Sam and I observed widespread wet loose instabilities on Sargents Ridge, Red Butte, Yellow Butte, and eastern and southeastern aspects of Green Butte, including natural wet loose avalanches in Sun Bowl. We also identified a layer of faceting snow grains underlying a dense slab of snow on a southeast aspect above the treeline. Located less than 40 centimeters down from the surface, these faceted grains of decomposing fragments averaged about two millimeters in size and the layer is about 5 centimeters thick. This will be a layer of concern if it persists and doesn't heal to the surrounding snowpack before this week's incoming storms.

Today, lower freezing levels and strong southwest wind will slow the thawing of melt-freeze crusts across the forecast area. With that being said, even with ambient air temperatures being cooler, the higher angle of the sun and longer daylight hours can push the temperature of the snow surface above freezing. As the day progresses, meltwater penetrates weak layers of the snowpack, decreasing its stability and increasing the chances of wet avalanche activity.

On your backcountry travels, if you see something interesting, please send us an observation HERE.

Today we are offering a free YOUTH Avalanche Awareness and Companion Rescue Day in Mount Shasta City, click the link for additional information.

Road access information: https://www.co.siskiyou.ca.us/publicworks/page/closures-and-delays

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