Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Wind slabs around a foot deep will continue to blow into touchy wind slabs above 2,000’. Natural and human triggered avalanches will be likely especially where these wind slabs are sitting over a layer of buried surface hoar. This problem will most likely be found on steep slopes below ridgelines, convexities and in cross loaded gullies. There is also a smaller chance of triggering a larger avalanche 3 to 5’ deep on weak snow buried near the bottom of the snowpack. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

We are sorry to report an avalanche resulting in multiple fatalities in the west fork of the Twentymile River yesterday afternoon. Details on this accident are still emerging, and we will share more information as it becomes available. Our sincere condolences go out to the friends and families of those involved. Preliminary information may be found in this article.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds overnight and continued snow and wind today will form touchy wind slabs around 1’ deep on slopes exposed to wind. These may be sitting on top of a buried layer of surface hoar which will make them even easier to trigger. If the storm verifies, this will be the largest load of snow in Summit Lake in over a month which will likely increase the amount of natural avalanche activity as well. A skier triggered an avalanche about 1’ deep on this weak layer on Monday on Tenderfoot which you can read about here. All signs point to dangerous conditions today as several inches of snow and strong southeast winds will continue to add stress to this weak layer. 

    Wind slabs tend to form below ridgelines, convex “rollovers” and in loaded gullies. Recent avalanche activity, blowing snow, shooting cracks, and whumpfing sounds, are all clues telling you that the snow is being stressed to its breaking point. Keep in mind that traveling tests may not provide bullseye information with this type of problem. It may not be worth trying to outsmart the problem. The safest option is to choose lower angle slopes if you get out today. 

    Cornices will be growing larger today and may fall, potentially triggering natural avalanches on slopes above you. Try to avoid spending anytime under these. 

    Wet snow avalanches are a concern below 2,000’ but will likely become less of an issue if the rain/snow line lowers in the afternoon. 

    (3/3/2025)

    Crown of the avalanche. Average depth was about 5" and deepest depth was 12"

    Photo: Mik Dalpes

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Close to the ground are layers of weak faceted snow that have a small chance of triggering a large avalanche 3 to 5’ deep. This storm may not be big enough to “wake up” these weak layers that have been relatively dormant for over a month but we are not sure. The most likely place to trigger a deep slab avalanche is by triggering a wind slab avalanche or where the snowpack is thin. These are places with exposed rocks but other thin spots exist on slopes that are impossible to steer clear of. The safest option to avoid this problem is to stick to slopes under 30 degrees. 

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